Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) Fair Value 2026

ASIC · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) trades at $24.45, approximately 25% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $32.69. QOC: 8.3/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASIC
Price
$24.45
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +33.7% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$32.69 +33.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$10.24 -58.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$20.64 -15.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$18.13 -25.9%

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What Is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $19.31. Trading at $24.45, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -21.0%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $33.16 (+35.6%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.94 (-96.1%). This +131.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ASIC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ASIC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ASIC's intrinsic value at $32.69, implying +33.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASIC Rank in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance?

Among 51 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks, ASIC ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places ASIC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks →

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's positioning within the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including premium rate hardening — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASIC a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ASIC. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASIC's 12 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HCI · KNSL · HG · SKWD · RNR

See all Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co

What is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $32.69. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.45, 3 of 12 active models suggest ASIC may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's business model in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for ASIC?

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASIC?

CirclFi analyzes ASIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ASIC a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ASIC at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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