Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) Fair Value 2026

ASIC · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) trades at $26.59, versus a $19.59 median fair value across its 5 active models — 26.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASIC
Price
$26.59
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $19.59, 26.3% below the current price of $26.59. Estimates range from $6.92 to $34.15. ASIC scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ASIC’s -26.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASIC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.52 -26.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.92 -74.0%
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What Is ASIC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $6.92 to $34.15

CirclFi's 5 active models place Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) between $6.92 and $34.15 per share, a spread of 139% of the median. The median of that range — $19.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASIC, against a current price of $26.59.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$6.92median $19.59$34.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.92
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$34.15
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASIC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASIC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.59. Trading at its current price of $26.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -26.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $34.15 (+28.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $6.92 (-74.0%). This +102.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ASIC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ASIC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASIC is $19.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASIC Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 42 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, ASIC ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places ASIC in the top tier.

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including premium rate hardening — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASIC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASIC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASIC's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.3WTMWhite Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 8.4SLDESlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporationQOC 7.7KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: WRB · SIGI · WTM · SLDE · UFCS · CNA · HMN · KNSL · CINF · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASIC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASIC’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

ACUAcme United CorporationQOC 8.3FLOFlowers Foods, Inc.QOC 8.3POSTPost Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3CRCCalifornia Resources CorporationQOC 8.3FLYWFlywire CorporationQOC 8.3VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACU · FLO · POST · CRC · FLYW · VVX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co’s Valuation?

What is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC)'s intrinsic value at $19.59 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.92 to $34.15. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.59, 1 of 5 active models suggest ASIC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $19.59, 26.3% below the current price of $26.59 — a consensus view that ASIC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for ASIC?

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASIC?

CirclFi analyzes ASIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASIC?

Of the 5 models currently active on ASIC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $34.15 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.92. CirclFi's published fair value for ASIC is the median of that range, $19.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 139% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASIC a value trap in 2026?

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co (ASIC) has a median fair value of $19.59 — 26.3% below the current price of $26.59 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASIC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASIC valuation
  • Financial statements: Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002040491) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASIC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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