Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) Fair Value 2026

SKWD · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) trades at $57.65, versus a $74.92 median fair value across its 3 active models — 30.0% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SKWD
Price
$57.65
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +48.4% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $74.92, 30.0% above the current price of $57.65. Estimates range from $53.47 to $85.55. SKWD scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SKWD’s +30.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SKWD?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $85.55 +48.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $74.92 +30.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $53.47 -7.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is SKWD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $53.47 to $85.55

CirclFi's 3 active models place Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) between $53.47 and $85.55 per share, a spread of 43% of the median. The median of that range — $74.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SKWD, against a current price of $57.65.

Low · FTNNHigh · ML-RIV
$53.47median $74.92$85.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$53.47
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$85.55
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SKWD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $74.92. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $57.65 (implied upside of +30.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 2 of 3 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +48.4% (fair value: $85.55), while FTNN is the most conservative at -7.2% ($53.47). The spread between these extremes — +55.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SKWD?

3 of 13 models are currently active for SKWD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SKWD is $74.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SKWD Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, SKWD ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places SKWD in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Property & Casualty space, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. competes in an environment where investment float often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SKWD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SKWD a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +55.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SKWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SKWD's 3 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

TRUPTrupanion, Inc.QOC 8.1LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0BOWBowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.QOC 8.1SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 7.9CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8LMNDLemonade, Inc.QOC 6.6HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: TRUP · L · BOW · SAFT · CNA · HIPO · LMND · HGTY · AII · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SKWD?

7 companies across all industries closest to SKWD’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

POOLPool CorporationQOC 8.1BAMBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.QOC 8.1NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1RNSTRenasant CorporationQOC 8.1HITHealth In Tech, Inc.QOC 8.1SMBCSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: POOL · BAM · NLY · RNST · HIT · SMBC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)'s intrinsic value at $74.92 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $53.47 to $85.55. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SKWD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.65, 2 of 3 active models suggest SKWD may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $74.92, 30.0% above the current price of $57.65 — a consensus view that SKWD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for SKWD?

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SKWD?

CirclFi analyzes SKWD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SKWD?

Of the 3 models currently active on SKWD, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $85.55 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $53.47. CirclFi's published fair value for SKWD is the median of that range, $74.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 43% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SKWD a value trap in 2026?

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) has a median fair value of $74.92 — 30.0% above the current price of $57.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SKWD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SKWD valuation

Market data for SKWD as of ; valuations recomputed .