ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Fair Value 2026

ON · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) trades at $74.80, versus a $29.34 median fair value across its 10 active models — 60.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $42.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
ON
Price
$74.80
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $29.34, 60.8% below the current price of $74.80. Estimates range from $5.70 to $199.25. ON scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ON’s -60.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ON Semiconductor Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ON?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.74 -42.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.76 -72.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $31.77 -57.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $43.31 -42.1%
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What Is ON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $5.70 to $199.25

CirclFi's 10 active models place ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) between $5.70 and $199.25 per share, a spread of 660% of the median. The median of that range — $29.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ON, against a current price of $74.80.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.70median $29.34$199.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.70
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$199.25
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ON Semiconductor Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $29.34, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $74.80. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-60.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +166.4% (fair value: $199.25), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -92.4% ($5.70). The spread between these extremes — +258.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ON?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ON. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ON is $29.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $42.74 on its own, implying -42.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ON Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, ON ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

As a chip maker, ON Semiconductor Corporation operates in a sector where book-to-bill ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ON should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ON a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for ON Semiconductor Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ON Semiconductor Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ON's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ON Semiconductor Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

DIODDiodes IncorporatedQOC 7.9GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedQOC 8.0MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.0SMTCSemtech CorporationQOC 7.6INTCIntel CorporationQOC 6.8MOBXMobix Labs, Inc.QOC 4.5CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: DIOD · GFS · MCHP · MTSI · SWKS · SMTC · INTC · MOBX · CRUS · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ON?

6 companies across all industries closest to ON’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CBKCommercial Bancgroup, Inc.QOC 7.8AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8NBHCNational Bank Holdings CorporationQOC 7.8FBNCFirst BancorpQOC 7.8PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: CBK · AMCR · NBHC · FBNC · PB · HPE

Where Does ON Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

ON is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About ON Semiconductor Corporation’s Valuation?

What is ON Semiconductor Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)'s intrinsic value at $29.34 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.70 to $199.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $42.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.80, 2 of 10 active models suggest ON may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $29.34, 60.8% below the current price of $74.80 — a consensus view that ON is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ON Semiconductor Corporation's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for ON?

ON Semiconductor Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ON?

CirclFi analyzes ON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ON?

Of the 10 models currently active on ON, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $199.25 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.70. CirclFi's published fair value for ON is the median of that range, $29.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 660% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ON a value trap in 2026?

ON Semiconductor Corporation's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) has a median fair value of $29.34 — 60.8% below the current price of $74.80 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ON valuation
  • Financial statements: ON Semiconductor Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001097864) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ON as of ; valuations recomputed .

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