Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) Fair Value 2026

DIOD · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) trades at $88.00, versus a $29.04 median fair value across its 10 active models — 67.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
DIOD
Price
$88.00
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $29.04, 67.0% below the current price of $88.00. Estimates range from $11.35 to $254.59. DIOD scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DIOD’s -67.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -60.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diodes Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DIOD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($88.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.19 -73.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.59 -72.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $36.45 -58.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $79.51 -9.6%
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What Is DIOD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $11.35 to $254.59

CirclFi's 10 active models place Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) between $11.35 and $254.59 per share, a spread of 838% of the median. The median of that range — $29.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DIOD, against a current price of $88.00.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$11.35median $29.04$254.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.35
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$254.59
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DIOD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DIOD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diodes Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $29.04. Trading at its current price of $88.00, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -67.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $254.59 (+189.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $11.35 (-87.1%). This +276.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Diodes Incorporated's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DIOD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DIOD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DIOD is $29.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.19 on its own, implying -73.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DIOD Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, DIOD ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor industry businesses. For Diodes Incorporated, metrics like inventory days provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DIOD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DIOD a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Diodes Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diodes Incorporated scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +276.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DIOD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DIOD's 10 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diodes Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedQOC 8.0ONON Semiconductor CorporationQOC 7.8SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.0GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7LSCCLattice Semiconductor CorporationQOC 8.1MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedQOC 6.8PRKRParkerVision, Inc.QOC 4.8MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: MCHP · ON · SWKS · GFS · LSCC · MTSI · AOSL · PRKR · MPWR · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DIOD?

6 companies across all industries closest to DIOD’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

SHOEShoe Station Group Inc.QOC 7.9FRDFriedman Industries, IncorporatedQOC 7.9BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 7.9CROXCrocs, Inc.QOC 7.9LGNDLigand Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 7.9GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc.QOC 7.9

Read investment analysis: SHOE · FRD · BLK · CROX · LGND · GEHC

Where Does DIOD Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

DIOD is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Diodes Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Diodes Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Diodes Incorporated (DIOD)'s intrinsic value at $29.04 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $11.35 to $254.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DIOD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $88.00, 2 of 10 active models suggest DIOD may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $29.04, 67.0% below the current price of $88.00 — a consensus view that DIOD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diodes Incorporated's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for DIOD?

Diodes Incorporated's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DIOD?

CirclFi analyzes DIOD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DIOD?

Of the 10 models currently active on DIOD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $254.59 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.35. CirclFi's published fair value for DIOD is the median of that range, $29.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 838% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DIOD a value trap in 2026?

Diodes Incorporated's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Diodes Incorporated (DIOD) has a median fair value of $29.04 — 67.0% below the current price of $88.00 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DIOD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DIOD valuation
  • Financial statements: Diodes Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000029002) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DIOD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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