Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) Fair Value 2026

FRD · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) trades at $44.84, versus a $11.03 median fair value across its 11 active models — 75.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.62.

Key Facts

Ticker
FRD
Price
$44.84
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $11.03, 75.4% below the current price of $44.84. Estimates range from $2.20 to $23.23. FRD scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FRD’s -75.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Friedman Industries, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FRD?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.62 -91.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.07 -75.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $14.92 -66.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.38 -79.1%
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What Is FRD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.20 to $23.23

CirclFi's 11 active models place Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) between $2.20 and $23.23 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $11.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FRD, against a current price of $44.84.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$2.20median $11.03$23.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$2.20
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$23.23
Model agreement0 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FRD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FRD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Friedman Industries, Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $11.03. Trading at its current price of $44.84, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -75.4%. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at -48.2% (fair value: $23.23), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -95.1% ($2.20). The spread between these extremes — +46.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FRD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FRD. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FRD is $11.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.62 on its own, implying -91.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FRD Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, FRD ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Steel sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Friedman Industries, Incorporated, metrics like aftermarket revenue mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FRD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FRD a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Friedman Industries, Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Friedman Industries, Incorporated earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +46.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FRD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FRD's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Friedman Industries, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2RSReliance, Inc.QOC 7.5NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3SIMGrupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.3NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5GGBGerdau S.A.QOC 7.1MTUSMetallus Inc.QOC 6.7INHDInno Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: STLD · RS · NUE · SIM · NWPX · GGB · MTUS · INHD · HUDI · MSB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FRD?

7 companies across all industries closest to FRD’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

SHOEShoe Station Group Inc.QOC 7.9GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc.QOC 7.9DIODDiodes IncorporatedQOC 7.9CROXCrocs, Inc.QOC 7.9LGNDLigand Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 7.9CCFNMuncy Columbia Financial CorporationQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SHOE · GEHC · DIOD · CROX · LGND · CCFN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Friedman Industries, Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Friedman Industries, Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD)'s intrinsic value at $11.03 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.20 to $23.23. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.62 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FRD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.84, 0 of 11 active models suggest FRD may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $11.03, 75.4% below the current price of $44.84 — a consensus view that FRD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Friedman Industries, Incorporated's business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for FRD?

Friedman Industries, Incorporated's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FRD?

CirclFi analyzes FRD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FRD?

Of the 11 models currently active on FRD, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $23.23 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $2.20. CirclFi's published fair value for FRD is the median of that range, $11.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FRD a value trap in 2026?

Friedman Industries, Incorporated's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD) has a median fair value of $11.03 — 75.4% below the current price of $44.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FRD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FRD valuation
  • Financial statements: Friedman Industries, Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000039092) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FRD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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