NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) Fair Value 2026

NWPX · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) trades at $114.28, versus a $38.88 median fair value across its 11 active models — 66.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $33.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
NWPX
Price
$114.28
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $38.88, 66.0% below the current price of $114.28. Estimates range from $12.77 to $78.62. NWPX scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NWPX’s -66.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NWPX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($114.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.74 -70.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.85 -80.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $39.18 -65.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $55.09 -51.8%
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What Is NWPX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $12.77 to $78.62

CirclFi's 11 active models place NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) between $12.77 and $78.62 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $38.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NWPX, against a current price of $114.28.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$12.77median $38.88$78.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$12.77
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$78.62
Model agreement0 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NWPX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NWPX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $38.88, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $114.28. With 11 out of 11 models flagging downside (-66.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $78.62 (-31.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $12.77 (-88.8%). This +57.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NWPX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NWPX. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NWPX is $38.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $33.74 on its own, implying -70.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NWPX Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, NWPX ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places NWPX in the top tier.

Within the Steel space, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. competes in an environment where capacity utilization rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NWPX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NWPX a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +57.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NWPX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NWPX's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3HLPHongli Group Inc.QOC 2.2STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6FRDFriedman Industries, IncorporatedQOC 7.9SIMGrupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.3PKXPOSCO Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4LUDLuda Technology Group LimitedQOC 2.9

Read investment analysis: MSB · NUE · HLP · STLD · HUDI · FRD · SIM · PKX · LUD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NWPX?

7 companies across all industries closest to NWPX’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.QOC 8.5ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.QOC 8.5ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5IVDNInnovative Designs, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PLOW · ENSG · ETST · GSHD · ARCO · IVDN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX)'s intrinsic value at $38.88 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.77 to $78.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $33.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NWPX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $114.28, 0 of 11 active models suggest NWPX may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $38.88, 66.0% below the current price of $114.28 — a consensus view that NWPX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for NWPX?

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NWPX?

CirclFi analyzes NWPX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NWPX?

Of the 11 models currently active on NWPX, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $78.62 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $12.77. CirclFi's published fair value for NWPX is the median of that range, $38.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NWPX a value trap in 2026?

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) has a median fair value of $38.88 — 66.0% below the current price of $114.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NWPX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NWPX valuation
  • Financial statements: NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001001385) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NWPX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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