Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Fair Value 2026

STLD · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) trades at $235.84, versus a $113.73 median fair value across its 10 active models — 51.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STLD
Price
$235.84
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $113.73, 51.8% below the current price of $235.84. Estimates range from $29.86 to $460.59. STLD scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STLD’s -51.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Steel Dynamics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STLD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($235.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $114.26 -51.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $113.20 -52.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $167.92 -28.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.47 -76.9%
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What Is STLD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $29.86 to $460.59

CirclFi's 10 active models place Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) between $29.86 and $460.59 per share, a spread of 379% of the median. The median of that range — $113.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STLD, against a current price of $235.84.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$29.86median $113.73$460.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$29.86
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$460.59
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for STLD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STLD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $113.73, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $235.84. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-51.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $460.59 (+95.3%), versus RCMH-DCF at $29.86 (-87.3%). This +182.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About STLD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for STLD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STLD is $113.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STLD Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, STLD ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places STLD in the top tier.

Within the Steel space, Steel Dynamics, Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is STLD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STLD a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Steel Dynamics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Steel Dynamics, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +182.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STLD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STLD's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Steel Dynamics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3FRDFriedman Industries, IncorporatedQOC 7.9NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5RSReliance, Inc.QOC 7.5MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7SIMGrupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.3TXTernium S.A.QOC 6.9SIDCompanhia Siderúrgica NacionalQOC 6.0ZKINZK International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: NUE · FRD · NWPX · RS · MSB · SIM · TX · SID · ZKIN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STLD?

7 companies across all industries closest to STLD’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationQOC 8.2HSYThe Hershey CompanyQOC 8.2CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2CNXNPC Connection, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CP · ARLP · ASC · HSY · CPAY · CNXN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Steel Dynamics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)'s intrinsic value at $113.73 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $29.86 to $460.59. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STLD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $235.84, 1 of 10 active models suggest STLD may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $113.73, 51.8% below the current price of $235.84 — a consensus view that STLD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for STLD?

Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STLD?

CirclFi analyzes STLD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STLD?

Of the 10 models currently active on STLD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $460.59 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $29.86. CirclFi's published fair value for STLD is the median of that range, $113.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 379% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STLD a value trap in 2026?

Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has a median fair value of $113.73 — 51.8% below the current price of $235.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STLD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STLD valuation
  • Financial statements: Steel Dynamics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001022671) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STLD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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