Mesabi Trust (MSB) Fair Value 2026

MSB · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mesabi Trust (MSB) trades at $23.59, versus a $73.46 median fair value across its 6 active models — 211.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $51.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSB
Price
$23.59
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +230.2% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mesabi Trust (MSB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Mesabi Trust (MSB) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $73.46, 211.4% above the current price of $23.59. Estimates range from $12.88 to $95.18. MSB scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MSB’s +211.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mesabi Trust Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSB?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.03 +116.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $77.88 +230.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $12.88 -45.4%
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What Is MSB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $12.88 to $95.18

CirclFi's 6 active models place Mesabi Trust (MSB) between $12.88 and $95.18 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $73.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSB, against a current price of $23.59.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$12.88median $73.46$95.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$12.88
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$95.18
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mesabi Trust (MSB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mesabi Trust's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $73.46. At a current market price of $23.59, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +211.4%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +303.5% (fair value: $95.18), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -45.4% ($12.88). The spread between these extremes — +348.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MSB?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MSB. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSB is $73.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $51.03 on its own, implying +116.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSB Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, MSB ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MSB in the top tier.

The Steel sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Mesabi Trust, metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MSB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSB a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Mesabi Trust. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mesabi Trust earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +348.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSB's 6 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mesabi Trust Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

HLPHongli Group Inc.QOC 2.2NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3ZKINZK International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2RSReliance, Inc.QOC 7.5WSWorthington Steel, Inc.QOC 6.5ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.QOC 4.6

Read investment analysis: HLP · NWPX · HUDI · NUE · ZKIN · STLD · RS · WS · ASTL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSB?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSB’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.QOC 8.7LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.7IBMInternational Business Machines CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HXL · EHC · ITW · LEA · TYL · IBM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mesabi Trust’s Valuation?

What is Mesabi Trust's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mesabi Trust (MSB)'s intrinsic value at $73.46 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.88 to $95.18. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $51.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.59, 5 of 6 active models suggest MSB may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $73.46, 211.4% above the current price of $23.59 — a consensus view that MSB is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mesabi Trust's business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MSB?

Mesabi Trust's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSB?

CirclFi analyzes MSB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSB?

Of the 6 models currently active on MSB, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $95.18 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $12.88. CirclFi's published fair value for MSB is the median of that range, $73.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSB a value trap in 2026?

Mesabi Trust's Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Mesabi Trust (MSB) has a median fair value of $73.46 — 211.4% above the current price of $23.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSB valuation
  • Financial statements: Mesabi Trust 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000065172) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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