International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Fair Value 2026

IBM · Information Technology Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) trades at $235.59, versus a $132.86 median fair value across its 11 active models — 43.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $165.49.

Key Facts

Ticker
IBM
Price
$235.59
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $132.86, 43.6% below the current price of $235.59. Estimates range from $25.42 to $254.81. IBM scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. IBM’s -43.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Information Technology Services sector median is +1.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy International Business Machines Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IBM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($235.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $165.49 -29.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.42 -89.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $132.86 -43.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $95.63 -59.4%
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What Is IBM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $25.42 to $254.81

CirclFi's 11 active models place International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) between $25.42 and $254.81 per share, a spread of 173% of the median. The median of that range — $132.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IBM, against a current price of $235.59.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$25.42median $132.86$254.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$25.42
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$254.81
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IBM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IBM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, International Business Machines Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $132.86. Trading at its current price of $235.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -43.6%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $254.81 (+8.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $25.42 (-89.2%). This +97.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about International Business Machines Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About IBM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for IBM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IBM is $132.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $165.49 on its own, implying -29.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IBM Rank in Information Technology Services?

Among 83 Information Technology Services stocks, IBM ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places IBM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Information Technology Services Stocks →

The Information Technology Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For International Business Machines Corporation, metrics like customer acquisition cost (CAC) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is IBM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IBM a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for International Business Machines Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, International Business Machines Corporation earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IBM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IBM's 11 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy International Business Machines Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Information Technology Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Information Technology Services stocks with 13-model coverage

TASKTaskUs, Inc.QOC 8.8GIBCGI Inc.QOC 8.5CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions CorporationQOC 8.8PSNParsons CorporationQOC 8.4ACNAccenture plcQOC 8.8GDYNGrid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4GDSGDS Holdings LimitedQOC 7.4SHAZSharonAI Holdings Inc.QOC 5.7CYCUCycurion, Inc.QOC 3.9INODInnodata Inc.QOC 9.3ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TASK · GIB · CTSH · PSN · ACN · GDYN · GDS · SHAZ · CYCU · INOD · IT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IBM?

7 companies across all industries closest to IBM’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationQOC 8.7SNNSmith & Nephew plcQOC 8.6LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7SIGSignet Jewelers LimitedQOC 8.6EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7IDTIDT CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UVSP · SNN · LEA · SIG · EHC · IDT · NVDA

Where Does IBM Sit in CirclFi's Information Technology Services Rankings?

IBM is ranked against every other Information Technology Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Information Technology Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About International Business Machines Corporation’s Valuation?

What is International Business Machines Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)'s intrinsic value at $132.86 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $25.42 to $254.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $165.49 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IBM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $235.59, 1 of 11 active models suggest IBM may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $132.86, 43.6% below the current price of $235.59 — a consensus view that IBM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits International Business Machines Corporation's business model in Information Technology Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for IBM?

International Business Machines Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IBM?

CirclFi analyzes IBM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IBM?

Of the 11 models currently active on IBM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $254.81 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $25.42. CirclFi's published fair value for IBM is the median of that range, $132.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 173% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IBM a value trap in 2026?

International Business Machines Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) has a median fair value of $132.86 — 43.6% below the current price of $235.59 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IBM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IBM valuation

Market data for IBM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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