Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Fair Value 2026

TYL · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) trades at $369.88, versus a $204.84 median fair value across its 10 active models — 44.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $367.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
TYL
Price
$369.88
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $204.84, 44.6% below the current price of $369.88. Estimates range from $49.99 to $458.25. TYL scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TYL’s -44.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tyler Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TYL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($369.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $367.74 -0.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.73 -82.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $196.26 -46.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $293.00 -20.8%
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What Is TYL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $49.99 to $458.25

CirclFi's 10 active models place Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) between $49.99 and $458.25 per share, a spread of 199% of the median. The median of that range — $204.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TYL, against a current price of $369.88.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$49.99median $204.84$458.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$49.99
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$458.25
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TYL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TYL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $204.84, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $369.88. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-44.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $458.25 (+23.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $49.99 (-86.5%). This +110.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TYL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TYL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TYL is $204.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $367.74 on its own, implying -0.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TYL Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, TYL ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places TYL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, Tyler Technologies, Inc. competes in an environment where rule of 40 score often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TYL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TYL a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Tyler Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TYL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TYL's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tyler Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

YOUClear Secure, Inc.QOC 8.7RDVTRed Violet, Inc.QOC 8.6HUBSHubSpot, Inc.QOC 8.7GTMZoomInfo Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6DDOGDatadog, Inc.QOC 8.7FRSHFreshworks Inc.QOC 8.6DHXDHI Group, Inc.QOC 7.1GLOOGloo Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6FRMMForum Markets, IncorporatedQOC 3.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: YOU · RDVT · HUBS · GTM · DDOG · FRSH · DHX · GLOO · FRMM · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TYL?

7 companies across all industries closest to TYL’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.QOC 8.7ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.QOC 8.7NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 8.7HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.7MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HLI · ITW · NXT · HXL · MGYR · MSB · NVDA

Where Does TYL Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

TYL is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tyler Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)'s intrinsic value at $204.84 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $49.99 to $458.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $367.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TYL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $369.88, 1 of 10 active models suggest TYL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $204.84, 44.6% below the current price of $369.88 — a consensus view that TYL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for TYL?

Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TYL?

CirclFi analyzes TYL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TYL?

Of the 10 models currently active on TYL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $458.25 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $49.99. CirclFi's published fair value for TYL is the median of that range, $204.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 199% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TYL a value trap in 2026?

Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) has a median fair value of $204.84 — 44.6% below the current price of $369.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TYL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TYL valuation
  • Financial statements: Tyler Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000860731) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TYL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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