Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Fair Value 2026

TDW · Water Transportation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Tidewater Inc. (TDW) trades at $74.35, approximately 4% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $77.83. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TDW
Price
$74.35
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +104.3% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$77.83 +4.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$37.66 -49.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$54.84 -26.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$151.89 +104.3%

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What Is Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tidewater Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.86, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $74.35. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-22.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $151.89 (+104.3%), versus EROIC at $24.31 (-67.3%). This +171.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TDW?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TDW. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TDW's intrinsic value at $77.83, implying +4.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TDW Rank in Water Transportation?

Among 23 Water Transportation stocks, TDW ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places TDW in the top tier.

Within the Water Transportation space, Tidewater Inc. competes in an environment where earned vs. allowed ROE often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TDW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TDW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Tidewater Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tidewater Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TDW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TDW's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tidewater Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Water Transportation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Water Transportation stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: FLNG · TNK · KEX · DLNG · NAT

Frequently Asked Questions About Tidewater Inc.

What is Tidewater Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tidewater Inc. (TDW) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $77.83. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TDW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.35, 3 of 13 active models suggest TDW may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tidewater Inc.'s business model in Water Transportation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for TDW?

Tidewater Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TDW?

CirclFi analyzes TDW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TDW a value trap in 2026?

Tidewater Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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