Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Fair Value 2026

TDW · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tidewater Inc. (TDW) trades at $93.04, versus a $115.44 median fair value across its 9 active models — 24.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $247.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
TDW
Price
$93.04
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +165.9% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Tidewater Inc. (TDW) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $115.44, 24.1% above the current price of $93.04. Estimates range from $44.20 to $247.40. TDW scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TDW’s +24.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tidewater Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TDW?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $247.40 +165.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $128.66 +38.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $194.78 +109.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.20 -52.5%
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What Is TDW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $44.20 to $247.40

CirclFi's 9 active models place Tidewater Inc. (TDW) between $44.20 and $247.40 per share, a spread of 176% of the median. The median of that range — $115.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TDW, against a current price of $93.04.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$44.20median $115.44$247.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$44.20
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$247.40
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TDW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TDW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tidewater Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $115.44, suggesting a +24.1% median upside from the current price of $93.04. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $247.40 (+165.9%), versus EROIC at $44.20 (-52.5%). This +218.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TDW?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TDW. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TDW is $115.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $247.40 on its own, implying +165.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TDW Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 52 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, TDW ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places TDW in the top tier.

Within the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space, Tidewater Inc. competes in an environment where finding and development costs (F&D) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TDW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TDW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Tidewater Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tidewater Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +218.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TDW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TDW's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tidewater Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8INVXInnovex International, Inc.QOC 8.7FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9WFRDWeatherford International plcQOC 8.6WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2TSTenaris S.A.QOC 8.6NOVNOV Inc.QOC 8.0PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.QOC 7.5ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.QOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: OII · INVX · FTI · WFRD · WHD · TS · NOV · PUMP · ACDC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TDW?

7 companies across all industries closest to TDW’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7MCKMcKesson CorporationQOC 8.7CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 8.7NLCPNewLake Capital Partners, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ULTA · RBC · PLNT · MCK · CHCO · NLCP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tidewater Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tidewater Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tidewater Inc. (TDW)'s intrinsic value at $115.44 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $44.20 to $247.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $247.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TDW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.04, 6 of 9 active models suggest TDW may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $115.44, 24.1% above the current price of $93.04 — a consensus view that TDW is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tidewater Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for TDW?

Tidewater Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TDW?

CirclFi analyzes TDW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TDW?

Of the 9 models currently active on TDW, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $247.40 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $44.20. CirclFi's published fair value for TDW is the median of that range, $115.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 176% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TDW a value trap in 2026?

Tidewater Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Tidewater Inc. (TDW) has a median fair value of $115.44 — 24.1% above the current price of $93.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TDW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TDW valuation
  • Financial statements: Tidewater Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000098222) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TDW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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