Kirby Corporation (KEX) Fair Value 2026

KEX · Marine Shipping ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Kirby Corporation (KEX) trades at $139.86, versus a $85.87 median fair value across its 11 active models — 38.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $87.55.

Key Facts

Ticker
KEX
Price
$139.86
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.9% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Kirby Corporation (KEX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kirby Corporation (KEX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $85.87, 38.6% below the current price of $139.86. Estimates range from $52.80 to $194.32. KEX scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KEX’s -38.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Marine Shipping sector median is -15.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kirby Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KEX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($139.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $87.55 -37.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $85.87 -38.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $194.32 +38.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.01 -57.1%
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What Is KEX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $52.80 to $194.32

CirclFi's 11 active models place Kirby Corporation (KEX) between $52.80 and $194.32 per share, a spread of 165% of the median. The median of that range — $85.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KEX, against a current price of $139.86.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$52.80median $85.87$194.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$52.80
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$194.32
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KEX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KEX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kirby Corporation (KEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kirby Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $85.87. Trading at its current price of $139.86, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -38.6%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +38.9% (fair value: $194.32), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -62.2% ($52.80). The spread between these extremes — +101.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About KEX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KEX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KEX is $85.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $87.55 on its own, implying -37.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KEX Rank in Marine Shipping?

Among 37 Marine Shipping stocks, KEX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places KEX in the top tier.

Kirby Corporation's positioning within the Marine Shipping segment means that average transaction price (ATP) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fleet renewal cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KEX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Kirby Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kirby Corporation scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KEX's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kirby Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Marine Shipping Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Marine Shipping stocks with 13-model coverage

HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5MATXMatson, Inc.QOC 8.4GASSStealthGas Inc.QOC 9.0ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationQOC 8.2CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1PANLPangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.QOC 8.2CTRMCastor Maritime Inc.QOC 7.4CCECCapital Clean Energy Carriers Corp.QOC 5.9ESEAEuroseas Ltd.QOC 3.3GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: HAFN · MATX · GASS · ASC · CMRE · PANL · CTRM · CCEC · ESEA · GSL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KEX?

7 companies across all industries closest to KEX’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4KNKnowles CorporationQOC 8.4XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5MPAAMotorcar Parts of America, Inc.QOC 8.4WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5NESRNational Energy Services Reunited Corp.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CKX · KN · XPO · MPAA · WTW · NESR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kirby Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Kirby Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kirby Corporation (KEX)'s intrinsic value at $85.87 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $52.80 to $194.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $87.55 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $139.86, 2 of 11 active models suggest KEX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $85.87, 38.6% below the current price of $139.86 — a consensus view that KEX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kirby Corporation's business model in Marine Shipping.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for KEX?

Kirby Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KEX?

CirclFi analyzes KEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KEX?

Of the 11 models currently active on KEX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $194.32 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $52.80. CirclFi's published fair value for KEX is the median of that range, $85.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 165% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KEX a value trap in 2026?

Kirby Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kirby Corporation (KEX) has a median fair value of $85.87 — 38.6% below the current price of $139.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KEX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KEX valuation
  • Financial statements: Kirby Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000056047) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KEX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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