Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Fair Value 2026

GTX · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) trades at $26.09, versus a $18.61 median fair value across its 10 active models — 28.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.62.

Key Facts

Ticker
GTX
Price
$26.09
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $18.61, 28.7% below the current price of $26.09. Estimates range from $3.98 to $62.84. GTX scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GTX’s -28.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -9.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Garrett Motion Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GTX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.62 -51.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.07 -57.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.76 -31.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.98 -84.7%
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What Is GTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.98 to $62.84

CirclFi's 10 active models place Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) between $3.98 and $62.84 per share, a spread of 316% of the median. The median of that range — $18.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GTX, against a current price of $26.09.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$3.98median $18.61$62.84
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$62.84
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GTX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Garrett Motion Inc. at its current price of $26.09. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.61 (-28.7% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $62.84 (+140.9%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $3.98 (-84.7%). This +225.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Garrett Motion Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GTX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GTX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GTX is $18.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.62 on its own, implying -51.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GTX Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 58 Auto Parts stocks, GTX ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places GTX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

Within the Auto Parts space, Garrett Motion Inc. competes in an environment where inventory days supply often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GTX a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Garrett Motion Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Garrett Motion Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +225.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GTX's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Garrett Motion Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

STRTStrattec Security CorporationQOC 8.4MODModine Manufacturing CompanyQOC 8.3MPAAMotorcar Parts of America, Inc.QOC 8.4AZOAutoZone, Inc.QOC 8.3ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.5GTECGreenland Technologies Holding CorporationQOC 8.1SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.QOC 7.6OMTKOmnitek Engineering Corp.QOC 6.2INEOINNEOVA Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: STRT · MOD · MPAA · AZO · ORLY · GTEC · SMP · OMTK · INEO · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to GTX’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

BLBlackLine, Inc.QOC 8.4MTDRMatador Resources CompanyQOC 8.4RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4CXMSprinklr, Inc.QOC 8.4ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.QOC 8.4VABKVirginia National Bankshares CorporationQOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BL · MTDR · RY · CXM · ENPH · VABK · NVDA

Where Does GTX Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

GTX is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Garrett Motion Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Garrett Motion Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)'s intrinsic value at $18.61 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.98 to $62.84. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.62 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.09, 2 of 10 active models suggest GTX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $18.61, 28.7% below the current price of $26.09 — a consensus view that GTX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Garrett Motion Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for GTX?

Garrett Motion Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GTX?

CirclFi analyzes GTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GTX?

Of the 10 models currently active on GTX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $62.84 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.98. CirclFi's published fair value for GTX is the median of that range, $18.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 316% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GTX a value trap in 2026?

Garrett Motion Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) has a median fair value of $18.61 — 28.7% below the current price of $26.09 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GTX valuation
  • Financial statements: Garrett Motion Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001735707) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GTX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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