Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) Fair Value 2026

MPAA · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) trades at $11.48, versus a $15.06 median fair value across its 10 active models — 31.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPAA
Price
$11.48
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: EROIC Spread suggests +33.0% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $15.06, 31.1% above the current price of $11.48. Estimates range from $3.19 to $46.06. MPAA scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MPAA’s +31.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MPAA?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.19 -72.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.79 -14.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.85 +29.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.26 +33.0%
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What Is MPAA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.19 to $46.06

CirclFi's 10 active models place Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) between $3.19 and $46.06 per share, a spread of 285% of the median. The median of that range — $15.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MPAA, against a current price of $11.48.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · PWERM
$3.19median $15.06$46.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.19
Most bullish modelPWERM$46.06
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MPAA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MPAA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.06, suggesting a +31.1% median upside from the current price of $11.48. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $46.06 (+301.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $3.19 (-72.2%). This +373.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MPAA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MPAA. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MPAA is $15.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.19 on its own, implying -72.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPAA Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, MPAA ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MPAA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

As a transportation company, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. operates in a sector where fleet electrification pace is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MPAA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MPAA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPAA a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +373.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPAA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPAA's 10 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.5STRTStrattec Security CorporationQOC 8.4PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5GTXGarrett Motion Inc.QOC 8.4GNTXGentex CorporationQOC 8.5MODModine Manufacturing CompanyQOC 8.3HLLYHolley Inc.QOC 7.7SCTHSecureTech Innovations, Inc.QOC 6.3MGAMagna International Inc.QOC 3.1ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: ORLY · STRT · PLOW · GTX · GNTX · MOD · HLLY · SCTH · MGA · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MPAA?

7 companies across all industries closest to MPAA’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

KNKnowles CorporationQOC 8.4NESRNational Energy Services Reunited Corp.QOC 8.4KEXKirby CorporationQOC 8.4FMFGFarmers and Merchants Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.4CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4AMALAmalgamated Financial Corp.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KN · NESR · KEX · FMFG · CKX · AMAL · NVDA

Where Does MPAA Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

MPAA is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)'s intrinsic value at $15.06 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.19 to $46.06. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPAA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.48, 7 of 10 active models suggest MPAA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $15.06, 31.1% above the current price of $11.48 — a consensus view that MPAA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MPAA?

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPAA?

CirclFi analyzes MPAA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MPAA?

Of the 10 models currently active on MPAA, PWERM is the most bullish at $46.06 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.19. CirclFi's published fair value for MPAA is the median of that range, $15.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 285% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MPAA a value trap in 2026?

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) has a median fair value of $15.06 — 31.1% above the current price of $11.48 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MPAA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MPAA valuation
  • Financial statements: Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000918251) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MPAA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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