Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) Fair Value 2026

THRM · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) trades at $40.38, versus a $24.50 median fair value across its 12 active models — 39.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
THRM
Price
$40.38
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +17.1% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $24.50, 39.3% below the current price of $40.38. Estimates range from $2.20 to $68.20. THRM scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. THRM’s -39.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gentherm Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give THRM?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.19 -77.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.07 -70.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.08 -42.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $47.29 +17.1%
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What Is THRM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.20 to $68.20

CirclFi's 12 active models place Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) between $2.20 and $68.20 per share, a spread of 269% of the median. The median of that range — $24.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for THRM, against a current price of $40.38.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.20median $24.50$68.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$68.20
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for THRM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on THRM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gentherm Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $24.50, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $40.38. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-39.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $68.20 (+68.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.20 (-94.5%). This +163.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Gentherm Incorporated's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About THRM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for THRM. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for THRM is $24.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.19 on its own, implying -77.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does THRM Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, THRM ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places THRM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

As a automotive sector, Gentherm Incorporated operates in a sector where inventory days supply is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating THRM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is THRM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns THRM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Gentherm Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Gentherm Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every THRM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across THRM's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gentherm Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

CAASChina Automotive Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0GTECGreenland Technologies Holding CorporationQOC 8.1BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0AZOAutoZone, Inc.QOC 8.3MLRMiller Industries, Inc.QOC 8.0MNROMonro, Inc.QOC 6.9ECXECARX Holdings Inc.QOC 5.6LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: CAAS · PHIN · GTEC · BWA · AZO · MLR · MNRO · ECX · LEA · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to THRM?

7 companies across all industries closest to THRM’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

TMETencent Music Entertainment GroupQOC 8.0WFCFWhere Food Comes From, Inc.QOC 8.0INDBIndependent Bank Corp.QOC 8.0MPLXMPLX LPQOC 8.0ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TME · WFCF · INDB · MPLX · ABG · NOAH · NVDA

Where Does THRM Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

THRM is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gentherm Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Gentherm Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gentherm Incorporated (THRM)'s intrinsic value at $24.50 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.20 to $68.20. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is THRM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.38, 2 of 12 active models suggest THRM may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $24.50, 39.3% below the current price of $40.38 — a consensus view that THRM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gentherm Incorporated's business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for THRM?

Gentherm Incorporated's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on THRM?

CirclFi analyzes THRM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on THRM?

Of the 12 models currently active on THRM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $68.20 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.20. CirclFi's published fair value for THRM is the median of that range, $24.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 269% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is THRM a value trap in 2026?

Gentherm Incorporated's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Gentherm Incorporated (THRM) has a median fair value of $24.50 — 39.3% below the current price of $40.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/THRM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this THRM valuation
  • Financial statements: Gentherm Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000903129) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for THRM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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