Aptiv PLC (APTV) Fair Value 2026

APTV · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Aptiv PLC (APTV) trades at $45.44, versus a $59.98 median fair value across its 13 active models — 32.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $66.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
APTV
Price
$45.44
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +197.6% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aptiv PLC (APTV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Aptiv PLC (APTV) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $59.98, 32.0% above the current price of $45.44. Estimates range from $8.33 to $151.83. APTV scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. APTV’s +32.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aptiv PLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APTV?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.24 +45.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.38 -46.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $53.97 +18.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $135.24 +197.6%
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What Is APTV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $8.33 to $151.83

CirclFi's 13 active models place Aptiv PLC (APTV) between $8.33 and $151.83 per share, a spread of 239% of the median. The median of that range — $59.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APTV, against a current price of $45.44.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$8.33median $59.98$151.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$8.33
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$151.83
Model agreement8 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APTV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APTV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aptiv PLC (APTV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Aptiv PLC at $45.44. With an estimated intrinsic value of $59.98 and 8 of 13 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +32.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $151.83 (+234.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $8.33 (-81.7%). This +315.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aptiv PLC's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About APTV?

13 of 13 models are currently active for APTV. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APTV is $59.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $66.24 on its own, implying +45.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APTV Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, APTV ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

Within the Auto Parts space, Aptiv PLC competes in an environment where warranty cost ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is APTV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APTV a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Aptiv PLC. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Aptiv PLC is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +315.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APTV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APTV's 13 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aptiv PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

GPCGenuine Parts CompanyQOC 7.7MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6HLLYHolley Inc.QOC 7.7DANDana IncorporatedQOC 7.5HSAIHesai GroupQOC 7.7ADNTAdient plcQOC 7.3SYPRSypris Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.2INEOINNEOVA Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8STRTStrattec Security CorporationQOC 8.4ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: GPC · MVST · HLLY · DAN · HSAI · ADNT · SYPR · INEO · STRT · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APTV?

7 companies across all industries closest to APTV’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.QOC 7.7TRVGtrivago N.V.QOC 7.7RHIRobert Half Inc.QOC 7.7GBTGGlobal Business Travel Group, Inc.QOC 7.7ASRVAmeriServ Financial, Inc.QOC 7.7VRNSVaronis Systems, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LH · TRVG · RHI · GBTG · ASRV · VRNS · NVDA

Where Does APTV Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

APTV is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aptiv PLC’s Valuation?

What is Aptiv PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aptiv PLC (APTV)'s intrinsic value at $59.98 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.33 to $151.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $66.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APTV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.44, 9 of 13 active models suggest APTV may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $59.98, 32.0% above the current price of $45.44 — a consensus view that APTV is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aptiv PLC's business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for APTV?

Aptiv PLC's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APTV?

CirclFi analyzes APTV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APTV?

Of the 13 models currently active on APTV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $151.83 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $8.33. CirclFi's published fair value for APTV is the median of that range, $59.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 239% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APTV a value trap in 2026?

Aptiv PLC's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Aptiv PLC (APTV) has a median fair value of $59.98 — 32.0% above the current price of $45.44 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APTV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APTV valuation
  • Financial statements: Aptiv PLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001521332) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APTV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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