Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Fair Value 2026

AAP · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) trades at $43.67, versus a $36.08 median fair value across its 8 active models — 17.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AAP
Price
$43.67
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $36.08, 17.4% below the current price of $43.67. Estimates range from $8.56 to $125.97. AAP scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AAP’s -17.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AAP?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.89 -75.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $36.72 -15.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $35.44 -18.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.56 -80.4%
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What Is AAP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $8.56 to $125.97

CirclFi's 8 active models place Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) between $8.56 and $125.97 per share, a spread of 325% of the median. The median of that range — $36.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AAP, against a current price of $43.67.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · PWERM
$8.56median $36.08$125.97
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$8.56
Most bullish modelPWERM$125.97
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AAP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AAP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $36.08. Trading at $43.67, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -17.4%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $125.97 (+188.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $8.56 (-80.4%). This +268.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AAP?

8 of 13 models are currently active for AAP. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AAP is $36.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AAP Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, AAP ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

The Auto Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Advance Auto Parts, Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AAP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AAP a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Advance Auto Parts, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AAP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AAP's 8 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

MBLYMobileye Global Inc.QOC 6.5SCTHSecureTech Innovations, Inc.QOC 6.3SLDPSolid Power, Inc.QOC 6.6SYPRSypris Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.2FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 6.6OMTKOmnitek Engineering Corp.QOC 6.2FFLOFree Flow USA, Inc.QOC 5.0PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5HSAIHesai GroupQOC 7.7ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MBLY · SCTH · SLDP · SYPR · FOXF · OMTK · FFLO · PLOW · HSAI · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AAP?

7 companies across all industries closest to AAP’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

DWSNDawson Geophysical CompanyQOC 6.4TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4PSNLPersonalis, Inc.QOC 6.4CTMCastellum, Inc.QOC 6.4MNOVMediciNova, Inc.QOC 6.4HRTXHeron Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DWSN · TRSG · PSNL · CTM · MNOV · HRTX · NVDA

Where Does AAP Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

AAP is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Advance Auto Parts, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)'s intrinsic value at $36.08 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.56 to $125.97. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AAP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.67, 3 of 8 active models suggest AAP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $36.08, 17.4% below the current price of $43.67 — a consensus view that AAP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for AAP?

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AAP?

CirclFi analyzes AAP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AAP?

Of the 8 models currently active on AAP, PWERM is the most bullish at $125.97 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $8.56. CirclFi's published fair value for AAP is the median of that range, $36.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 325% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AAP a value trap in 2026?

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a median fair value of $36.08 — 17.4% below the current price of $43.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AAP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AAP valuation
  • Financial statements: Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001158449) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AAP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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