Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Fair Value 2026

TNDM · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) trades at $21.43, versus a $7.13 median fair value across its 3 active models — 66.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TNDM
Price
$21.43
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $7.13, 66.8% below the current price of $21.43. Estimates range from $5.20 to $11.08. TNDM scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TNDM’s -66.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TNDM?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $5.20 -75.7%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $11.08 -48.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.13 -66.8%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is TNDM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $5.20 to $11.08

CirclFi's 3 active models place Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) between $5.20 and $11.08 per share, a spread of 82% of the median. The median of that range — $7.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TNDM, against a current price of $21.43.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$5.20median $7.13$11.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$5.20
Most bullish modelPWERM$11.08
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TNDM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.43. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-66.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About TNDM?

3 of 13 models are currently active for TNDM. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TNDM is $7.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TNDM Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 159 Medical Devices stocks, TNDM ranks #72 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

As a healthcare company, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. operates in a sector where FDA approval probability is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TNDM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TNDM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TNDM a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+27.4% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TNDM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TNDM's 3 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

RXSTRxSight, Inc.QOC 6.5BFLYButterfly Network, Inc.QOC 6.4CLPTClearPoint Neuro, Inc.QOC 6.5ARAYAccuray IncorporatedQOC 6.4TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.QOC 6.5RDGLVivos Inc.QOC 6.4PLSMPulsenmore Ltd.QOC 5.6ODYYOdyssey Health, Inc.QOC 3.7BIOBio-Rad Laboratories, Inc.QOC 7.8IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: RXST · BFLY · CLPT · ARAY · TMCI · RDGL · PLSM · ODYY · BIO · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TNDM?

7 companies across all industries closest to TNDM’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

MNTKMontauk Renewables, Inc.QOC 6.5VNCEVince Holding Corp.QOC 6.5BNRBurning Rock Biotech LimitedQOC 6.5KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5KVHIKVH Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5ZHZhihu Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MNTK · VNCE · BNR · KYMR · KVHI · ZH · NVDA

Where Does TNDM Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

TNDM is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM)'s intrinsic value at $7.13 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.20 to $11.08. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TNDM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.43, 0 of 3 active models suggest TNDM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $7.13, 66.8% below the current price of $21.43 — a consensus view that TNDM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for TNDM?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TNDM?

CirclFi analyzes TNDM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TNDM?

Of the 3 models currently active on TNDM, PWERM is the most bullish at $11.08 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $5.20. CirclFi's published fair value for TNDM is the median of that range, $7.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 82% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TNDM a value trap in 2026?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) has a median fair value of $7.13 — 66.8% below the current price of $21.43 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TNDM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TNDM valuation
  • Financial statements: Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001438133) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TNDM as of ; valuations recomputed .