Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) Fair Value 2026

ALSN · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) trades at $129.16, versus a $83.56 median fair value across its 12 active models — 35.3% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $64.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALSN
Price
$129.16
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +9.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $83.56, 35.3% below the current price of $129.16. Estimates range from $46.64 to $289.09. ALSN scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALSN’s -35.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALSN?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($129.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.65 -49.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.61 -56.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $83.36 -35.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $141.90 +9.9%
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What Is ALSN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $46.64 to $289.09

CirclFi's 12 active models place Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) between $46.64 and $289.09 per share, a spread of 290% of the median. The median of that range — $83.56 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALSN, against a current price of $129.16.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$46.64median $83.56$289.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$46.64
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$289.09
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALSN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALSN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $83.56. Trading at its current price of $129.16, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -35.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $289.09 (+123.8%), versus EROIC at $46.64 (-63.9%). This +187.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALSN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ALSN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALSN is $83.56 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $64.65 on its own, implying -49.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALSN Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, ALSN ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ALSN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

The Auto Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to transportation company businesses. For Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., metrics like EBIT per unit provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALSN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALSN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. scores 9.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +187.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALSN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALSN's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

FRSXForesight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.QOC 2.3ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0WPRTWestport Fuel Systems Inc.QOC 2.7XPELXPEL, Inc.QOC 9.0INEOINNEOVA Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7MODModine Manufacturing CompanyQOC 8.3DANDana IncorporatedQOC 7.5HYLNHyliion Holdings Corp.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: FRSX · ALV · WPRT · XPEL · INEO · LEA · MOD · DAN · HYLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALSN?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALSN’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

GLWCorning IncorporatedQOC 9.1ACIWACI Worldwide, Inc.QOC 9.1AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1XPXP Inc.QOC 9.1MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.QOC 9.1MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GLW · ACIW · AIT · XP · MSI · MA · NVDA

Where Does ALSN Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

ALSN is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)'s intrinsic value at $83.56 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $46.64 to $289.09. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $64.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALSN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $129.16, 2 of 12 active models suggest ALSN may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $83.56, 35.3% below the current price of $129.16 — a consensus view that ALSN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ALSN?

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALSN?

CirclFi analyzes ALSN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALSN?

Of the 12 models currently active on ALSN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $289.09 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $46.64. CirclFi's published fair value for ALSN is the median of that range, $83.56, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 290% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALSN a value trap in 2026?

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) has a median fair value of $83.56 — 35.3% below the current price of $129.16 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALSN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALSN valuation

Market data for ALSN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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