ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) Fair Value 2026

ACIW · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) trades at $54.23, versus a $40.13 median fair value across its 11 active models — 26.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $39.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACIW
Price
$54.23
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +21.0% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $40.13, 26.0% below the current price of $54.23. Estimates range from $15.75 to $87.17. ACIW scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACIW’s -26.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ACI Worldwide, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACIW?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.63 -26.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.75 -71.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $40.13 -26.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $65.62 +21.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ACIW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.75 to $87.17

CirclFi's 11 active models place ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) between $15.75 and $87.17 per share, a spread of 178% of the median. The median of that range — $40.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACIW, against a current price of $54.23.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$15.75median $40.13$87.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$15.75
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$87.17
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACIW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACIW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $40.13. Trading at $54.23, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.0%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +60.8% (fair value: $87.17), while EPV is the most conservative at -71.0% ($15.75). The spread between these extremes — +131.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ACIW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ACIW. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACIW is $40.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $39.63 on its own, implying -26.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACIW Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, ACIW ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ACIW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that net revenue retention (NRR) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ACIW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACIW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for ACI Worldwide, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ACI Worldwide, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACIW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACIW's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ACI Worldwide, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

AVPTAvePoint, Inc.QOC 9.2XYZBlock, Inc.QOC 9.1PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.QOC 9.2GDDYGoDaddy Inc.QOC 9.1NTAPNetApp, Inc.QOC 9.3RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9PDYNPalladyne AI Corp.QOC 5.8PAYPPayPay CorporationQOC 4.7FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: AVPT · XYZ · PLTR · GDDY · NTAP · RAMP · PRTH · PDYN · PAYP · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACIW?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACIW’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1XPXP Inc.QOC 9.1GLWCorning IncorporatedQOC 9.1MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1EXTRExtreme Networks, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ALSN · XP · GLW · MA · AIT · EXTR · NVDA

Where Does ACIW Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

ACIW is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About ACI Worldwide, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW)'s intrinsic value at $40.13 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.75 to $87.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $39.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACIW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.23, 3 of 11 active models suggest ACIW may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $40.13, 26.0% below the current price of $54.23 — a consensus view that ACIW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ACIW?

ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACIW?

CirclFi analyzes ACIW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACIW?

Of the 11 models currently active on ACIW, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $87.17 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $15.75. CirclFi's published fair value for ACIW is the median of that range, $40.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 178% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACIW a value trap in 2026?

ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) has a median fair value of $40.13 — 26.0% below the current price of $54.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACIW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACIW valuation
  • Financial statements: ACI Worldwide, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000935036) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACIW as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ACIW.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for ACIW Unlock All 11 — $39/mo