Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Fair Value 2026

FCX · Copper ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) trades at $72.56, versus a $20.71 median fair value across its 10 active models — 71.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.12.

Key Facts

Ticker
FCX
Price
$72.56
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +84.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.71, 71.5% below the current price of $72.56. Estimates range from $1.12 to $133.74. FCX scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. FCX’s -71.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FCX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $1.12 -98.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.57 -79.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.86 -63.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $133.74 +84.3%
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What Is FCX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.12 to $133.74

CirclFi's 10 active models place Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) between $1.12 and $133.74 per share, a spread of 640% of the median. The median of that range — $20.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FCX, against a current price of $72.56.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$1.12median $20.71$133.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.12
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$133.74
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FCX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FCX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $20.71, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $72.56. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-71.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $133.74 (+84.3%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.12 (-98.5%). This +182.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FCX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FCX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FCX is $20.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.12 on its own, implying -98.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FCX Rank in Copper?

Among 8 Copper stocks, FCX ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places FCX in the top tier.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FCX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FCX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Freeport-McMoRan Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +182.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FCX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FCX's 10 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Copper Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Copper stocks with 13-model coverage

SCCOSouthern Copper CorporationQOC 9.3EROEro Copper Corp.QOC 8.7TECKTeck Resources LimitedQOC 7.5TGBTrekor Metals LimitedQOC 6.5IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.QOC 6.0COPRIdaho Copper CorporationQOC 4.8HBMHudbay Minerals Inc.QOC 2.7

Read investment analysis: SCCO · ERO · TECK · TGB · IE · COPR · HBM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FCX?

7 companies across all industries closest to FCX’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9WINGWingstop Inc.QOC 8.9GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9HEIHEICO CorporationQOC 8.9QCOMQUALCOMM IncorporatedQOC 8.9WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DAL · WING · GRBK · HEI · QCOM · WTFC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)'s intrinsic value at $20.71 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.12 to $133.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.12 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FCX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.56, 2 of 10 active models suggest FCX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.71, 71.5% below the current price of $72.56 — a consensus view that FCX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s business model in Copper.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for FCX?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FCX?

CirclFi analyzes FCX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FCX?

Of the 10 models currently active on FCX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $133.74 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.12. CirclFi's published fair value for FCX is the median of that range, $20.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 640% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FCX a value trap in 2026?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has a median fair value of $20.71 — 71.5% below the current price of $72.56 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FCX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FCX valuation
  • Financial statements: Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000831259) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FCX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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