Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Fair Value 2026

CLF · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) trades at $11.83, versus a $20.45 median fair value across its 3 active models — 72.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CLF
Price
$11.83
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +97.2% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $20.45, 72.9% above the current price of $11.83. Estimates range from $16.01 to $23.33. CLF scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CLF’s +72.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CLF?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $16.01 +35.3%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $23.33 +97.2%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $20.45 +72.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is CLF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $16.01 to $23.33

CirclFi's 3 active models place Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) between $16.01 and $23.33 per share, a spread of 36% of the median. The median of that range — $20.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CLF, against a current price of $11.83.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$16.01median $20.45$23.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$16.01
Most bullish modelPWERM$23.33
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on CLF. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CLF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.. Trading at $11.83 against an estimated intrinsic value of $20.45, 3 of 3 active models flag meaningful upside of +72.9% at the median. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $23.33 (+97.2%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $16.01 (+35.3%). This +61.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CLF?

3 of 13 models are currently active for CLF. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CLF is $20.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CLF Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, CLF ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial sector, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates in a sector where capacity utilization rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CLF should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CLF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CLF a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +61.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CLF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CLF's 3 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

PKXPOSCO Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4SIDCompanhia Siderúrgica NacionalQOC 6.0WSWorthington Steel, Inc.QOC 6.5INHDInno Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0MTUSMetallus Inc.QOC 6.7ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.QOC 4.6MTArcelorMittal S.A.QOC 2.9NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5SIMGrupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.3MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: PKX · SID · WS · INHD · MTUS · ASTL · MT · NWPX · SIM · MSB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CLF?

7 companies across all industries closest to CLF’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3BGSB&G Foods, Inc.QOC 6.3AMPGAmpliTech Group, Inc.QOC 6.3AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3MSNEmerson Radio Corp.QOC 6.3SIFYSify Technologies LimitedQOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KSCP · BGS · AMPG · AMPX · MSN · SIFY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)'s intrinsic value at $20.45 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $16.01 to $23.33. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CLF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.83, 3 of 3 active models suggest CLF may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $20.45, 72.9% above the current price of $11.83 — a consensus view that CLF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for CLF?

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CLF?

CirclFi analyzes CLF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CLF?

Of the 3 models currently active on CLF, PWERM is the most bullish at $23.33 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $16.01. CirclFi's published fair value for CLF is the median of that range, $20.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 36% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CLF a value trap in 2026?

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has a median fair value of $20.45 — 72.9% above the current price of $11.83 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CLF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CLF valuation
  • Financial statements: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000764065) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CLF as of ; valuations recomputed .