ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Fair Value 2026

MT · Steel ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) trades at $74.39, versus a $105.20 median fair value across its 2 active models — 41.4% above the current price. QOC: 2.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MT
Price
$74.39
Quality Score
2.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +175.6% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $105.20, 41.4% above the current price of $74.39. Estimates range from $5.36 to $205.04. MT scores 2.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MT’s +41.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Steel sector median is -41.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ArcelorMittal S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MT?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.36 -92.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $205.04 +175.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ArcelorMittal S.A. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $74.39. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $105.20 (+41.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $205.04 (+175.6%), versus Markov DDM at $5.36 (-92.8%). This +268.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MT?

2 of 13 models are currently active for MT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MT is $105.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MT Rank in Steel?

Among 21 Steel stocks, MT ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.9 signals below-average fundamentals.

As a industrial enterprise, ArcelorMittal S.A. operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MT a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for ArcelorMittal S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ArcelorMittal S.A.'s fundamental quality profile registers 2.9/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MT's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ArcelorMittal S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Steel stocks with 13-model coverage

LUDLuda Technology Group LimitedQOC 2.9ZKINZK International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.QOC 4.6HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6INHDInno Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0HLPHongli Group Inc.QOC 2.2NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5SIMGrupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.3PKXPOSCO Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: LUD · ZKIN · ASTL · HUDI · INHD · HLP · NWPX · SIM · PKX · MSB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MT?

7 companies across all industries closest to MT’s Quality of Company score of 2.9/10.

NALGNorth America Lithium Corp.QOC 2.9FOFOHang Feng Technology Innovation Co., Ltd.QOC 2.9EDHLEverbright Digital Holding LimitedQOC 2.9RDWRRadware Ltd.QOC 2.9SNTSenstar Technologies CorporationQOC 2.9TTETotalEnergies SEQOC 2.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NALG · FOFO · EDHL · RDWR · SNT · TTE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ArcelorMittal S.A.’s Valuation?

What is ArcelorMittal S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT)'s intrinsic value at $105.20 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.36 to $205.04. The Quality of Company score is 2.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.39, 1 of 2 active models suggest MT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $105.20, 41.4% above the current price of $74.39 — a consensus view that MT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ArcelorMittal S.A.'s business model in Steel.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.9 mean for MT?

ArcelorMittal S.A.'s QOC of 2.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MT?

CirclFi analyzes MT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MT a value trap in 2026?

ArcelorMittal S.A.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) has a median fair value of $105.20 — 41.4% above the current price of $74.39 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MT valuation
  • Financial statements: ArcelorMittal S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001243429) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MT as of ; valuations recomputed .