Tenaris S.A. (TS) Fair Value 2026

TS · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tenaris S.A. (TS) trades at $54.31, versus a $77.07 median fair value across its 11 active models — 41.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $77.07.

Key Facts

Ticker
TS
Price
$54.31
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +86.1% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tenaris S.A. (TS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $77.07, 41.9% above the current price of $54.31. Estimates range from $41.29 to $132.63. TS scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TS’s +41.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tenaris S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TS?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.07 +41.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.41 -21.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $77.75 +43.2%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $101.06 +86.1%
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What Is TS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $41.29 to $132.63

CirclFi's 11 active models place Tenaris S.A. (TS) between $41.29 and $132.63 per share, a spread of 119% of the median. The median of that range — $77.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TS, against a current price of $54.31.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$41.29median $77.07$132.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$41.29
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$132.63
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenaris S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $77.07, suggesting a +41.9% median upside from the current price of $54.31. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $132.63 (+144.2%), versus EROIC at $41.29 (-24.0%). This +168.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TS?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TS. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TS is $77.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $77.07 on its own, implying +41.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TS Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 52 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, TS ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places TS in the top tier.

As a energy producer, Tenaris S.A. operates in a sector where capital efficiency ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Tenaris S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tenaris S.A.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TS's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenaris S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

WFRDWeatherford International plcQOC 8.6BKRBaker Hughes CompanyQOC 8.5INVXInnovex International, Inc.QOC 8.7NESRNational Energy Services Reunited Corp.QOC 8.4TDWTidewater Inc.QOC 8.7XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4USACUSA Compression Partners, LPQOC 8.0WTTRSelect Water Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.8HMHHMH Holding Inc.QOC 5.3WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: WFRD · BKR · INVX · NESR · TDW · XPRO · USAC · WTTR · HMH · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TS?

7 companies across all industries closest to TS’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 8.6MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6VMCVulcan Materials CompanyQOC 8.6GENCGencor Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ATMU · BMRN · MORN · ORC · VMC · GENC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tenaris S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Tenaris S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tenaris S.A. (TS)'s intrinsic value at $77.07 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $41.29 to $132.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $77.07 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.31, 8 of 11 active models suggest TS may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $77.07, 41.9% above the current price of $54.31 — a consensus view that TS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenaris S.A.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for TS?

Tenaris S.A.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TS?

CirclFi analyzes TS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TS?

Of the 11 models currently active on TS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $132.63 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $41.29. CirclFi's published fair value for TS is the median of that range, $77.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 119% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TS a value trap in 2026?

Tenaris S.A.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tenaris S.A. (TS) has a median fair value of $77.07 — 41.9% above the current price of $54.31 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TS valuation
  • Financial statements: Tenaris S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001190723) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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