Tenaris S.A. (TS) Fair Value 2026

TS · Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Tenaris S.A. (TS) trades at $55.87, approximately 16% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $66.50. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TS
Price
$55.87
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +153.3% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($55.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$66.50 +19.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$20.86 -62.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$76.65 +37.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$141.53 +153.3%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenaris S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $80.43, suggesting a +44.0% average upside from the current price of $55.87. While 9 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $163.74 (+193.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $19.18 (-65.7%). This +258.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TS. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TS's intrinsic value at $66.50, implying +19.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TS Rank in Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)?

Among 13 Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) stocks, TS ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places TS in the top tier.

As a industrial enterprise, Tenaris S.A. operates in a sector where working capital efficiency is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TS a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Tenaris S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tenaris S.A.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.4/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TS's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenaris S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMC · STLD · CRS · NUE · SXC

Frequently Asked Questions About Tenaris S.A.

What is Tenaris S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tenaris S.A. (TS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $66.50. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $55.87, 9 of 13 active models suggest TS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenaris S.A.'s business model in Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens).

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for TS?

Tenaris S.A.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TS?

CirclFi analyzes TS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TS a value trap in 2026?

Tenaris S.A.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on TS.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access