Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Fair Value 2026

CFR · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) trades at $161.39, versus a $147.52 median fair value across its 6 active models — 8.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CFR
Price
$161.39
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $147.52, within 8.6% of the current price of $161.39. Estimates range from $127.84 to $179.63. CFR scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CFR’s -8.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CFR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($161.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $147.16 -8.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $147.88 -8.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $134.83 -16.5%
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What Is CFR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $127.84 to $179.63

CirclFi's 6 active models place Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) between $127.84 and $179.63 per share, a spread of 35% of the median. The median of that range — $147.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CFR, against a current price of $161.39.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$127.84median $147.52$179.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$127.84
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$179.63
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on CFR. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CFR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. at its current price of $161.39. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $147.52 (-8.6% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $179.63 (+11.3%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $127.84 (-20.8%). This +32.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CFR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CFR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CFR is $147.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CFR Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, CFR ranks #88 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places CFR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. competes in an environment where non-performing loan ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CFR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CFR a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +32.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CFR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CFR's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

VABKVirginia National Bankshares CorporationQOC 8.4PBFSPioneer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4CSBBCSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4CCBGCapital City Bank Group, Inc.QOC 8.4ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.QOC 8.4OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of FloridaQOC 8.0GOVBGouverneur Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5AGBKAGI IncQOC 4.2ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: VABK · PBFS · CSBB · CCBG · ITUB · OBK · SBCF · GOVB · AGBK · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CFR?

6 companies across all industries closest to CFR’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.QOC 8.4MTDRMatador Resources CompanyQOC 8.4AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4WMTWalmart Inc.QOC 8.4BWMXBetterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHD · MTDR · AKAM · WMT · BWMX · NVDA

Where Does CFR Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

CFR is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR)'s intrinsic value at $147.52 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $127.84 to $179.63. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CFR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $161.39, 2 of 6 active models suggest CFR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $147.52, within 8.6% of the current price of $161.39 — a consensus view that CFR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for CFR?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CFR?

CirclFi analyzes CFR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CFR?

Of the 6 models currently active on CFR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $179.63 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $127.84. CirclFi's published fair value for CFR is the median of that range, $147.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 35% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CFR a value trap in 2026?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) has a median fair value of $147.52 — within 8.6% of the current price of $161.39 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CFR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CFR valuation
  • Financial statements: Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000039263) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CFR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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