Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Fair Value 2026

CFR · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) trades at $157.82, approximately 55% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $347.75. QOC: 8.8/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CFR
Price
$157.82
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +120.3% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($157.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$347.75 +120.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$88.55 -43.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$174.05 +10.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$182.27 +15.5%

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What Is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $188.99, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $157.82. While the average implied return is +19.7%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +164.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $347.75 (+120.3%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $88.55 (-43.9%). This +164.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CFR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CFR. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CFR's intrinsic value at $347.75, implying +120.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CFR Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, CFR ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places CFR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

Within the National Commercial Banks space, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. competes in an environment where non-performing loan ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CFR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for CFR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CFR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CFR's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

What is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $347.75. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CFR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $157.82, 7 of 12 active models suggest CFR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for CFR?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CFR?

CirclFi analyzes CFR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CFR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for CFR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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