FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) Fair Value 2026

FSUN · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) trades at $35.48, approximately 38% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $57.23. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FSUN
Price
$35.48
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +61.3% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$57.23 +61.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$8.91 -74.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$41.04 +15.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$48.00 +35.3%

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What Is FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FirstSun Capital Bancorp's intrinsic value is estimated at $39.91, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $35.48. With an average implied return of +12.5% across a split 5–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +177.6% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +102.7% (fair value: $71.91), while EPV is the most conservative at -74.9% ($8.91). The spread between these extremes — +177.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FSUN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FSUN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FSUN's intrinsic value at $57.23, implying +61.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FSUN Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, FSUN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places FSUN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

The National Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For FirstSun Capital Bancorp, metrics like net interest margin (NIM) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FSUN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FSUN a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for FirstSun Capital Bancorp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FirstSun Capital Bancorp scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +177.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FSUN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FSUN's 11 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FirstSun Capital Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About FirstSun Capital Bancorp

What is FirstSun Capital Bancorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $57.23. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FSUN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.48, 5 of 11 active models suggest FSUN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FirstSun Capital Bancorp's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for FSUN?

FirstSun Capital Bancorp's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FSUN?

CirclFi analyzes FSUN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FSUN a value trap in 2026?

FirstSun Capital Bancorp's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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