S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Fair Value 2026

STBA · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) trades at $49.84, versus a $23.95 median fair value across its 5 active models — 51.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STBA
Price
$49.84
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $23.95, 51.9% below the current price of $49.84. Estimates range from $22.37 to $26.66. STBA scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STBA’s -51.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy S&T Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STBA?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.45 -46.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $23.95 -51.9%
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What Is STBA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $22.37 to $26.66

CirclFi's 5 active models place S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) between $22.37 and $26.66 per share, a spread of 18% of the median. The median of that range — $23.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STBA, against a current price of $49.84.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$22.37median $23.95$26.66
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$22.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$26.66
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on STBA. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STBA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.95. Trading at its current price of $49.84, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -51.9%.

What Do the Models Say About STBA?

5 of 13 models are currently active for STBA. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for STBA is $23.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STBA Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 3 State Commercial Banks stocks, STBA ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places STBA in the top tier.

S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s positioning within the State Commercial Banks segment means that non-performing loan ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is STBA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STBA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for S&T Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, S&T Bancorp, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.3/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+8.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STBA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STBA's 5 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy S&T Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

CWBCCommunity West BancsharesQOC 8.3DBDeutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftQOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: CWBC · DB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STBA?

7 companies across all industries closest to STBA’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3RLRalph Lauren CorporationQOC 9.3SCCOSouthern Copper CorporationQOC 9.3ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2ITTITT Inc.QOC 9.3TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LECO · RL · SCCO · ODC · ITT · TRAK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About S&T Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)'s intrinsic value at $23.95 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $22.37 to $26.66. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STBA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.84, 0 of 5 active models suggest STBA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $23.95, 51.9% below the current price of $49.84 — a consensus view that STBA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for STBA?

S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STBA?

CirclFi analyzes STBA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STBA?

Of the 5 models currently active on STBA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $26.66 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $22.37. CirclFi's published fair value for STBA is the median of that range, $23.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 18% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STBA a value trap in 2026?

S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) has a median fair value of $23.95 — 51.9% below the current price of $49.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STBA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STBA valuation
  • Financial statements: S&T Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000719220) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STBA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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