South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Fair Value 2026

SPFI · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) trades at $43.62, versus a $40.50 median fair value across its 6 active models — 7.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPFI
Price
$43.62
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $40.50, within 7.2% of the current price of $43.62. Estimates range from $32.20 to $64.08. SPFI scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SPFI’s -7.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy South Plains Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPFI?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.20 -26.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $40.23 -7.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.21 -10.1%
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What Is SPFI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $32.20 to $64.08

CirclFi's 6 active models place South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) between $32.20 and $64.08 per share, a spread of 79% of the median. The median of that range — $40.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPFI, against a current price of $43.62.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$32.20median $40.50$64.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$32.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$64.08
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPFI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, South Plains Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $40.50. Trading at $43.62, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -7.2%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $64.08 (+46.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $32.20 (-26.2%). This +73.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about South Plains Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SPFI?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SPFI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPFI is $40.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPFI Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, SPFI ranks #172 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

South Plains Financial, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that loan loss provisions plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SPFI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPFI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for South Plains Financial, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, South Plains Financial, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +73.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPFI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPFI's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy South Plains Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

CBANColony Bankcorp, Inc.QOC 8.0WNEBWestern New England Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0TRMKTrustmark CorporationQOC 8.0BANRBanner CorporationQOC 8.0GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of FloridaQOC 8.0HAPNHappen, Inc.QOC 7.5IBNICICI Bank LimitedQOC 4.7FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 8.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CBAN · WNEB · TRMK · BANR · GABC · SBCF · HAPN · IBN · FSUN · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPFI?

4 companies across all industries closest to SPFI’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0FIEEFiEE, Inc.QOC 8.0TBCHTurtle Beach CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GNRC · FIEE · TBCH · NVDA

Where Does SPFI Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

SPFI is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About South Plains Financial, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is South Plains Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI)'s intrinsic value at $40.50 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $32.20 to $64.08. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPFI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.62, 2 of 6 active models suggest SPFI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $40.50, within 7.2% of the current price of $43.62 — a consensus view that SPFI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits South Plains Financial, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for SPFI?

South Plains Financial, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPFI?

CirclFi analyzes SPFI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPFI?

Of the 6 models currently active on SPFI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $64.08 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $32.20. CirclFi's published fair value for SPFI is the median of that range, $40.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 79% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPFI a value trap in 2026?

South Plains Financial, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) has a median fair value of $40.50 — within 7.2% of the current price of $43.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPFI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPFI valuation
  • Financial statements: South Plains Financial, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001163668) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPFI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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