Dollar General Corporation (DG) Fair Value 2026

DG · Discount Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Dollar General Corporation (DG) trades at $125.89, versus a $170.55 median fair value across its 11 active models — 35.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $378.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
DG
Price
$125.89
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +200.7% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Dollar General Corporation (DG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $170.55, 35.5% above the current price of $125.89. Estimates range from $70.51 to $378.53. DG scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DG’s +35.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dollar General Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($125.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $378.53 +200.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $217.87 +73.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $183.55 +45.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $70.51 -44.0%
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What Is DG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $70.51 to $378.53

CirclFi's 11 active models place Dollar General Corporation (DG) between $70.51 and $378.53 per share, a spread of 181% of the median. The median of that range — $170.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DG, against a current price of $125.89.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$70.51median $170.55$378.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$70.51
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$378.53
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dollar General Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $170.55. At a current market price of $125.89, 9 of 11 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +35.5%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +200.7% (fair value: $378.53), while EROIC is the most conservative at -44.0% ($70.51). The spread between these extremes — +244.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DG. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DG is $170.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $378.53 on its own, implying +200.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DG Rank in Discount Stores?

Among 9 Discount Stores stocks, DG ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

Dollar General Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DG a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Dollar General Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Dollar General Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DG's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dollar General Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Discount Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Discount Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationQOC 8.9BJBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5WMTWalmart Inc.QOC 8.4OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.QOC 7.9TBBBBBB Foods Inc.QOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: COST · BJ · PSMT · WMT · OLLI · TGT · DLTR · TBBB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DG?

7 companies across all industries closest to DG’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

LTCLTC Properties, Inc.QOC 8.0SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQOC 8.0PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.QOC 8.0ORGOOrganogenesis Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LTC · SAH · CNQ · PRKS · ORGO · GBX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dollar General Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Dollar General Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dollar General Corporation (DG)'s intrinsic value at $170.55 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $70.51 to $378.53. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $378.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $125.89, 9 of 11 active models suggest DG may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $170.55, 35.5% above the current price of $125.89 — a consensus view that DG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dollar General Corporation's business model in Discount Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for DG?

Dollar General Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DG?

CirclFi analyzes DG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DG?

Of the 11 models currently active on DG, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $378.53 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $70.51. CirclFi's published fair value for DG is the median of that range, $170.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 181% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DG a value trap in 2026?

Dollar General Corporation's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Dollar General Corporation (DG) has a median fair value of $170.55 — 35.5% above the current price of $125.89 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DG valuation
  • Financial statements: Dollar General Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000029534) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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