What Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's intrinsic value is estimated at $42.80. Trading at its current price of $65.33, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -34.5%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +37.1% (fair value: $89.54), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -78.3% ($14.16). The spread between these extremes — +115.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About OLLI?
13 of 13 models are currently active for OLLI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OLLI's intrinsic value at $33.07, implying -49.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does OLLI Rank in Retail-Variety Stores?
Among 10 Retail-Variety Stores stocks, OLLI ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places OLLI in the top tier.
The Retail-Variety Stores sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, metrics like inventory turnover provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is OLLI a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for OLLI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every OLLI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across OLLI's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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