Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Fair Value 2026

OLLI · Discount Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) trades at $71.51, versus a $60.89 median fair value across its 11 active models — 14.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $63.51.

Key Facts

Ticker
OLLI
Price
$71.51
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +78.3% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $60.89, 14.8% below the current price of $71.51. Estimates range from $8.25 to $127.51. OLLI scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OLLI’s -14.8% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OLLI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.51 -11.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.60 -44.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $60.89 -14.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $127.51 +78.3%
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What Is OLLI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $8.25 to $127.51

CirclFi's 11 active models place Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) between $8.25 and $127.51 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $60.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OLLI, against a current price of $71.51.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$8.25median $60.89$127.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$8.25
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$127.51
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OLLI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OLLI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $60.89. Trading at $71.51, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -14.8%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +78.3% (fair value: $127.51), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -88.5% ($8.25). The spread between these extremes — +166.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OLLI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for OLLI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OLLI is $60.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $63.51 on its own, implying -11.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OLLI Rank in Discount Stores?

Among 9 Discount Stores stocks, OLLI ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places OLLI in the top tier.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OLLI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OLLI a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +166.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OLLI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OLLI's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Discount Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Discount Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationQOC 8.9BJBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5WMTWalmart Inc.QOC 8.4TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0DGDollar General CorporationQOC 8.0DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.QOC 7.9TBBBBBB Foods Inc.QOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: COST · BJ · PSMT · WMT · TGT · DG · DLTR · TBBB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OLLI?

7 companies across all industries closest to OLLI’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3BMOBank of MontrealQOC 8.3MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 8.3WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TXT · BMO · MGRC · HAE · WCC · ERIC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)'s intrinsic value at $60.89 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.25 to $127.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $63.51 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.51, 4 of 11 active models suggest OLLI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $60.89, 14.8% below the current price of $71.51 — a consensus view that OLLI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Discount Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for OLLI?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OLLI?

CirclFi analyzes OLLI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OLLI?

Of the 11 models currently active on OLLI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $127.51 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $8.25. CirclFi's published fair value for OLLI is the median of that range, $60.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OLLI a value trap in 2026?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has a median fair value of $60.89 — 14.8% below the current price of $71.51 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OLLI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OLLI valuation

Market data for OLLI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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