What Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dollar Tree, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $144.11, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $126.38. With an average implied return of +14.0% across a split 6–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +247.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +151.7% (fair value: $318.09), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -95.3% ($5.99). The spread between these extremes — +247.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About DLTR?
13 of 13 models are currently active for DLTR. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DLTR's intrinsic value at $188.67, implying +49.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does DLTR Rank in Retail-Variety Stores?
Among 10 Retail-Variety Stores stocks, DLTR ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places DLTR in the top tier.
The Retail-Variety Stores sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Dollar Tree, Inc., metrics like customer lifetime value (CLV) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is DLTR a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DLTR a score of 9/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Dollar Tree, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dollar Tree, Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +247.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every DLTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across DLTR's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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