Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Fair Value 2026

COST · Discount Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) trades at $934.66, versus a $357.34 median fair value across its 10 active models — 61.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $385.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
COST
Price
$934.66
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $357.34, 61.8% below the current price of $934.66. Estimates range from $69.26 to $671.48. COST scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. COST’s -61.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give COST?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($934.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $385.68 -58.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $238.24 -74.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $329.00 -64.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $671.48 -28.2%
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What Is COST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $69.26 to $671.48

CirclFi's 10 active models place Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) between $69.26 and $671.48 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $357.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for COST, against a current price of $934.66.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$69.26median $357.34$671.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$69.26
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$671.48
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for COST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on COST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $357.34, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $934.66. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-61.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -28.2% (fair value: $671.48), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -92.6% ($69.26). The spread between these extremes — +64.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About COST?

10 of 13 models are currently active for COST. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for COST is $357.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $385.68 on its own, implying -58.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does COST Rank in Discount Stores?

Among 9 Discount Stores stocks, COST ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places COST in the top tier.

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is COST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COST a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Costco Wholesale Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Costco Wholesale Corporation is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every COST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across COST's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Discount Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Discount Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

BJBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5WMTWalmart Inc.QOC 8.4OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0DGDollar General CorporationQOC 8.0DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.QOC 7.9TBBBBBB Foods Inc.QOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: BJ · PSMT · WMT · OLLI · TGT · DG · DLTR · TBBB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to COST?

7 companies across all industries closest to COST’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9BXBlackstone Inc.QOC 8.9FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9SAPSAP SEQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADUS · HTHT · BX · FTI · ACEL · SAP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Costco Wholesale Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)'s intrinsic value at $357.34 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $69.26 to $671.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $385.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is COST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $934.66, 0 of 10 active models suggest COST may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $357.34, 61.8% below the current price of $934.66 — a consensus view that COST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Costco Wholesale Corporation's business model in Discount Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for COST?

Costco Wholesale Corporation's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on COST?

CirclFi analyzes COST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on COST?

Of the 10 models currently active on COST, First Chicago is the most bullish at $671.48 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $69.26. CirclFi's published fair value for COST is the median of that range, $357.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is COST a value trap in 2026?

Costco Wholesale Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has a median fair value of $357.34 — 61.8% below the current price of $934.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/COST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this COST valuation
  • Financial statements: Costco Wholesale Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000909832) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for COST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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