What Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $411.19, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $926.43. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-55.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -3.8% (fair value: $891.28), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -96.7% ($30.95). The spread between these extremes — +92.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About COST?
13 of 13 models are currently active for COST. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates COST's intrinsic value at $292.17, implying -68.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does COST Rank in Retail-Variety Stores?
Among 10 Retail-Variety Stores stocks, COST ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places COST in the top tier.
Within the Retail-Variety Stores space, Costco Wholesale Corporation competes in an environment where gross margin expansion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is COST a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COST a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Costco Wholesale Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Costco Wholesale Corporation is rated at 9.6/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every COST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across COST's 13 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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