The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) Fair Value 2026

THG · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) trades at $227.66, versus a $166.95 median fair value across its 6 active models — 26.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
THG
Price
$227.66
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +62.5% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $166.95, 26.7% below the current price of $227.66. Estimates range from $132.64 to $369.88. THG scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. THG’s -26.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give THG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($227.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $133.49 -41.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $170.21 -25.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $369.88 +62.5%
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What Is THG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $132.64 to $369.88

CirclFi's 6 active models place The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) between $132.64 and $369.88 per share, a spread of 142% of the median. The median of that range — $166.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for THG, against a current price of $227.66.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$132.64median $166.95$369.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$132.64
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$369.88
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for THG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on THG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $166.95, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $227.66. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-26.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $369.88 (+62.5%), versus Regime Cross at $132.64 (-41.7%). This +104.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About THG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for THG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for THG is $166.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does THG Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, THG ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places THG in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Property & Casualty space, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. competes in an environment where reserve adequacy often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is THG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns THG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every THG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across THG's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance CorporationQOC 8.8MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7PGRThe Progressive CorporationQOC 8.8CBChubb LimitedQOC 8.7CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7SLDESlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3ROOTRoot, Inc.QOC 7.2PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: ACIC · MCY · PGR · CB · CINF · AII · SLDE · ROOT · PLMR · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to THG?

7 companies across all industries closest to THG’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8LAURLaureate Education, Inc.QOC 8.8WTWisdomTree, Inc.QOC 8.8ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.QOC 8.7QTWOQ2 Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8MYRGMYR Group Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UGP · LAUR · WT · ALH · QTWO · MYRG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)'s intrinsic value at $166.95 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $132.64 to $369.88. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is THG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $227.66, 1 of 6 active models suggest THG may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $166.95, 26.7% below the current price of $227.66 — a consensus view that THG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for THG?

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on THG?

CirclFi analyzes THG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on THG?

Of the 6 models currently active on THG, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $369.88 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $132.64. CirclFi's published fair value for THG is the median of that range, $166.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 142% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is THG a value trap in 2026?

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) has a median fair value of $166.95 — 26.7% below the current price of $227.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/THG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this THG valuation
  • Financial statements: The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000944695) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for THG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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