Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) Fair Value 2026

SAFT · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) trades at $103.79, versus a $64.77 median fair value across its 6 active models — 37.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAFT
Price
$103.79
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $64.77, 37.6% below the current price of $103.79. Estimates range from $50.43 to $95.03. SAFT scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SAFT’s -37.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Safety Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAFT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($103.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.40 -33.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $64.73 -37.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.43 -51.4%
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What Is SAFT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $50.43 to $95.03

CirclFi's 6 active models place Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) between $50.43 and $95.03 per share, a spread of 69% of the median. The median of that range — $64.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAFT, against a current price of $103.79.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$50.43median $64.77$95.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$50.43
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$95.03
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAFT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $64.77. Trading at its current price of $103.79, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -37.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $95.03 (-8.4%), versus ML-RIV at $50.43 (-51.4%). This +43.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SAFT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for SAFT. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SAFT is $64.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAFT Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, SAFT ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that premium growth rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including distribution channel efficiency — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SAFT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAFT a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Safety Insurance Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +43.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAFT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAFT's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Safety Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.1HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporationQOC 7.7TRUPTrupanion, Inc.QOC 8.1GBLIGlobal Indemnity Group, LLCQOC 7.6HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9MKLMarkel Group Inc.QOC 9.0UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: L · HIPO · SKWD · HMN · TRUP · GBLI · HCI · MKL · UFCS · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAFT?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAFT’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

DJCODaily Journal CorporationQOC 7.9FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyQOC 7.9WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9CARSCars.com Inc.QOC 7.9RLGTRadiant Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.9DRHDiamondRock Hospitality CompanyQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DJCO · FSTR · WH · CARS · RLGT · DRH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Safety Insurance Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)'s intrinsic value at $64.77 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $50.43 to $95.03. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAFT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $103.79, 0 of 6 active models suggest SAFT may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $64.77, 37.6% below the current price of $103.79 — a consensus view that SAFT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for SAFT?

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAFT?

CirclFi analyzes SAFT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAFT?

Of the 6 models currently active on SAFT, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $95.03 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $50.43. CirclFi's published fair value for SAFT is the median of that range, $64.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 69% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAFT a value trap in 2026?

Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) has a median fair value of $64.77 — 37.6% below the current price of $103.79 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAFT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAFT valuation
  • Financial statements: Safety Insurance Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001172052) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAFT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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