Ball Corporation (BALL) Fair Value 2026

BALL · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ball Corporation (BALL) trades at $63.77, versus a $47.15 median fair value across its 11 active models — 26.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BALL
Price
$63.77
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +42.7% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ball Corporation (BALL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ball Corporation (BALL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $47.15, 26.1% below the current price of $63.77. Estimates range from $15.35 to $110.37. BALL scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BALL’s -26.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -14.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ball Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BALL?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($63.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.35 -75.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.86 -31.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $91.01 +42.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.19 -71.5%
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What Is BALL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.35 to $110.37

CirclFi's 11 active models place Ball Corporation (BALL) between $15.35 and $110.37 per share, a spread of 202% of the median. The median of that range — $47.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BALL, against a current price of $63.77.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$15.35median $47.15$110.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$15.35
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$110.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BALL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BALL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ball Corporation (BALL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ball Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $47.15, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $63.77. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-26.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +73.1% (fair value: $110.37), while EPV is the most conservative at -75.9% ($15.35). The spread between these extremes — +149.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BALL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BALL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BALL is $47.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BALL Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, BALL ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Ball Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BALL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BALL a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Ball Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ball Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +149.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BALL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BALL's 11 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ball Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8GEFGreif, Inc.QOC 8.3SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8AVYAvery Dennison CorporationQOC 7.7GFLTGenFlat Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.7KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: TRS · CCK · GPK · MYE · GEF · SW · AVY · GFLT · KRT · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BALL?

7 companies across all industries closest to BALL’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

DRHDiamondRock Hospitality CompanyQOC 7.9CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9CARSCars.com Inc.QOC 7.9AUDCAudioCodes Ltd.QOC 7.9WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DRH · CBRL · CARS · AUDC · WH · BIIB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ball Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Ball Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ball Corporation (BALL)'s intrinsic value at $47.15 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.35 to $110.37. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BALL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $63.77, 2 of 11 active models suggest BALL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $47.15, 26.1% below the current price of $63.77 — a consensus view that BALL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ball Corporation's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for BALL?

Ball Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BALL?

CirclFi analyzes BALL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BALL?

Of the 11 models currently active on BALL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $110.37 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $15.35. CirclFi's published fair value for BALL is the median of that range, $47.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 202% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BALL a value trap in 2026?

Ball Corporation's Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ball Corporation (BALL) has a median fair value of $47.15 — 26.1% below the current price of $63.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BALL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BALL valuation
  • Financial statements: Ball Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000009389) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BALL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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