Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Fair Value 2026

AMBP · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) trades at $5.14, versus a $2.28 median fair value across its 5 active models — 55.6% below the current price. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMBP
Price
$5.14
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $2.28, 55.6% below the current price of $5.14. Estimates range from $0.19 to $7.33. AMBP scores 4.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMBP’s -55.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -14.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMBP?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.25 -95.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.28 -55.6%
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What Is AMBP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.19 to $7.33

CirclFi's 5 active models place Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) between $0.19 and $7.33 per share, a spread of 313% of the median. The median of that range — $2.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMBP, against a current price of $5.14.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.19median $2.28$7.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$0.19
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.33
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMBP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMBP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.28. Trading at its current price of $5.14, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -55.6%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $7.33 (+42.6%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.19 (-96.3%). This +139.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMBP?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AMBP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMBP is $2.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMBP Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, AMBP ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMBP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMBP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. scores 4.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMBP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMBP's 5 active models, average confidence is 13%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

ORBSEightco Holdings Inc.QOC 4.8DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2YHGJYunhong Green CTI Ltd.QOC 4.9MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8GFLTGenFlat Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.7KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8OIO-I Glass, Inc.QOC 6.8PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: ORBS · DSS · YHGJ · MGIH · GFLT · KRT · SON · MYE · OI · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMBP?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMBP’s Quality of Company score of 4.6/10.

AQBAquaBounty Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.6NAKNorthern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.QOC 4.6VPLMVoip-Pal.com Inc.QOC 4.6BMEBlackRock Health Sciences TrustQOC 4.6DFNST3 Defense Inc.QOC 4.6BDRXBiodexa Pharmaceuticals PlcQOC 4.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AQB · NAK · VPLM · BME · DFNS · BDRX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP)'s intrinsic value at $2.28 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.19 to $7.33. The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.14, 1 of 5 active models suggest AMBP may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $2.28, 55.6% below the current price of $5.14 — a consensus view that AMBP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for AMBP?

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMBP?

CirclFi analyzes AMBP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMBP?

Of the 5 models currently active on AMBP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $7.33 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $0.19. CirclFi's published fair value for AMBP is the median of that range, $2.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 313% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMBP a value trap in 2026?

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has a median fair value of $2.28 — 55.6% below the current price of $5.14 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMBP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMBP valuation
  • Financial statements: Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001845097) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMBP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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