What Is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $3.54. Trading at $4.44, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.3%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $11.83 (+166.4%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.15 (-96.5%). This +263.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About AMBP?
13 of 13 models are currently active for AMBP. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMBP's intrinsic value at $1.18, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AMBP Rank in Packaging & Containers?
Among 2 Packaging & Containers stocks, AMBP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.9 signals below-average fundamentals.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is AMBP a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AMBP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. scores 2.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +263.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AMBP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AMBP's 13 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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