Amcor plc (AMCR) Fair Value 2026

AMCR · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Amcor plc (AMCR) trades at $46.67, versus a $49.23 median fair value across its 12 active models — 5.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $80.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMCR
Price
$46.67
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +116.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Amcor plc (AMCR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Amcor plc (AMCR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $49.23, within 5.5% of the current price of $46.67. Estimates range from $27.12 to $108.78. AMCR scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMCR’s +5.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -14.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Amcor plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMCR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $80.96 +73.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.24 -39.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $51.18 +9.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $101.25 +116.9%
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What Is AMCR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $27.12 to $108.78

CirclFi's 12 active models place Amcor plc (AMCR) between $27.12 and $108.78 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $49.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMCR, against a current price of $46.67.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$27.12median $49.23$108.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$27.12
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$108.78
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMCR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMCR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Amcor plc (AMCR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Amcor plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $49.23, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $46.67. While the median implied return is +5.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +175.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $108.78 (+133.1%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $27.12 (-41.9%). This +175.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Amcor plc's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AMCR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AMCR. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMCR is $49.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $80.96 on its own, implying +73.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMCR Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, AMCR ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Amcor plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMCR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMCR a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Amcor plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Amcor plc's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMCR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMCR's 12 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amcor plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8AVYAvery Dennison CorporationQOC 7.7MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.QOC 6.7DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: SW · AVY · MYE · REYN · CCK · SLGN · PACK · DSS · GPK · KRT · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMCR?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMCR’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8CBKCommercial Bancgroup, Inc.QOC 7.8NBHCNational Bank Holdings CorporationQOC 7.8HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyQOC 7.8PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8FBNCFirst BancorpQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CAE · CBK · NBHC · HPE · PB · FBNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Amcor plc’s Valuation?

What is Amcor plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Amcor plc (AMCR)'s intrinsic value at $49.23 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $27.12 to $108.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $80.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMCR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.67, 7 of 12 active models suggest AMCR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $49.23, within 5.5% of the current price of $46.67 — a consensus view that AMCR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amcor plc's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for AMCR?

Amcor plc's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMCR?

CirclFi analyzes AMCR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMCR?

Of the 12 models currently active on AMCR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $108.78 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $27.12. CirclFi's published fair value for AMCR is the median of that range, $49.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMCR a value trap in 2026?

Amcor plc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Amcor plc (AMCR) has a median fair value of $49.23 — within 5.5% of the current price of $46.67 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMCR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMCR valuation
  • Financial statements: Amcor plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001748790) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMCR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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