Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Fair Value 2026

PKG · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) trades at $243.69, versus a $88.33 median fair value across its 11 active models — 63.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $78.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
PKG
Price
$243.69
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +50.0% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $88.33, 63.8% below the current price of $243.69. Estimates range from $64.34 to $365.47. PKG scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PKG’s -63.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -15.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Packaging Corporation of America Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PKG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($243.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $78.69 -67.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $86.33 -64.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $106.79 -56.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $365.47 +50.0%
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What Is PKG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $64.34 to $365.47

CirclFi's 11 active models place Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) between $64.34 and $365.47 per share, a spread of 341% of the median. The median of that range — $88.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PKG, against a current price of $243.69.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$64.34median $88.33$365.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$64.34
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$365.47
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PKG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PKG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Packaging Corporation of America's intrinsic value is estimated at $88.33. Trading at its current price of $243.69, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -63.8%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +50.0% (fair value: $365.47), while EROIC is the most conservative at -73.6% ($64.34). The spread between these extremes — +123.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PKG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PKG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PKG is $88.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $78.69 on its own, implying -67.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PKG Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, PKG ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places PKG in the top tier.

Packaging Corporation of America operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PKG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PKG a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Packaging Corporation of America. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Packaging Corporation of America earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PKG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PKG's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Packaging Corporation of America Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8GEFGreif, Inc.QOC 8.3DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2BALLBall CorporationQOC 7.9REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6YHGJYunhong Green CTI Ltd.QOC 4.9

Read investment analysis: KRT · SON · MGIH · GEF · DSS · GPK · BALL · REYN · YHGJ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PKG?

7 companies across all industries closest to PKG’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5HRBH&R Block, Inc.QOC 8.5APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.QOC 8.5CNMDCONMED CorporationQOC 8.5ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.5GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HAFN · HRB · APEI · CNMD · ROP · GSK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Packaging Corporation of America’s Valuation?

What is Packaging Corporation of America's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)'s intrinsic value at $88.33 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $64.34 to $365.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $78.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PKG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $243.69, 2 of 11 active models suggest PKG may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $88.33, 63.8% below the current price of $243.69 — a consensus view that PKG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Packaging Corporation of America's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for PKG?

Packaging Corporation of America's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PKG?

CirclFi analyzes PKG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PKG?

Of the 11 models currently active on PKG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $365.47 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $64.34. CirclFi's published fair value for PKG is the median of that range, $88.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 341% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PKG a value trap in 2026?

Packaging Corporation of America's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a median fair value of $88.33 — 63.8% below the current price of $243.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PKG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PKG valuation
  • Financial statements: Packaging Corporation of America 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000075677) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PKG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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