Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Fair Value 2026

NIC · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) trades at $164.61, approximately 18% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $200.97. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NIC
Price
$164.61
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +22.1% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($164.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $200.97 +22.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $33.78 -79.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $105.97 -35.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $123.59 -24.9%

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What Is Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $113.97. Trading at its current price of $164.61, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -30.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $200.97 (+22.1%), versus Markov DDM at $19.92 (-87.9%). This +110.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NIC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NIC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NIC's intrinsic value at $200.97, implying +22.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NIC Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, NIC ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places NIC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

The National Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Nicolet Bankshares Inc., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NIC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NIC a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Nicolet Bankshares Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nicolet Bankshares Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NIC's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nicolet Bankshares Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.6CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 9.6SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.6WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 9.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 9.3CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3FUNCFirstQOC 9.1CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CBNA · CARE · SHBI · WABC · FSUN

See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Nicolet Bankshares Inc.

What is Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $200.97. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $164.61, 3 of 12 active models suggest NIC may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for NIC?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NIC?

CirclFi analyzes NIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NIC a value trap in 2026?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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