Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) Fair Value 2026

NIC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) trades at $171.41, versus a $117.77 median fair value across its 5 active models — 31.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NIC
Price
$171.41
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $117.77, 31.3% below the current price of $171.41. Estimates range from $92.78 to $205.93. NIC scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NIC’s -31.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NIC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($171.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $119.74 -30.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $117.77 -31.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is NIC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $92.78 to $205.93

CirclFi's 5 active models place Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) between $92.78 and $205.93 per share, a spread of 96% of the median. The median of that range — $117.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NIC, against a current price of $171.41.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$92.78median $117.77$205.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$92.78
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$205.93
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NIC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $117.77. Trading at its current price of $171.41, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -31.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $205.93 (+20.1%), versus FTNN at $92.78 (-45.9%). This +66.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NIC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NIC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NIC is $117.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NIC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, NIC ranks #59 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places NIC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Nicolet Bankshares, Inc., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NIC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NIC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +66.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NIC's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.QOC 8.5HBTHBT Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5UMBFUMB Financial CorporationQOC 8.5RVRFRiver Financial CorporationQOC 8.5BANFBancFirst CorporationQOC 8.5OPHCOptimumBank Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5ATLOAmes National CorporationQOC 8.1CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7FBLAFB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.5ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PFIS · HBT · UMBF · RVRF · BANF · OPHC · ATLO · CZWI · FBLA · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NIC?

6 companies across all industries closest to NIC’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.5ITRIItron, Inc.QOC 8.5APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.QOC 8.5HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PHM · ROP · ITRI · APEI · HAFN · NVDA

Where Does NIC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

NIC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)'s intrinsic value at $117.77 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $92.78 to $205.93. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $171.41, 1 of 5 active models suggest NIC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $117.77, 31.3% below the current price of $171.41 — a consensus view that NIC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for NIC?

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NIC?

CirclFi analyzes NIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NIC?

Of the 5 models currently active on NIC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $205.93 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $92.78. CirclFi's published fair value for NIC is the median of that range, $117.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 96% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NIC a value trap in 2026?

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC) has a median fair value of $117.77 — 31.3% below the current price of $171.41 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NIC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NIC valuation
  • Financial statements: Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001174850) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NIC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NIC.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for NIC Unlock All 5 — $39/mo