What Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PulteGroup, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $115.77, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $123.73. With an average implied return of -6.4% across a split 4–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +118.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +40.6% (fair value: $173.91), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -78.2% ($26.99). The spread between these extremes — +118.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About PHM?
13 of 13 models are currently active for PHM. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PHM's intrinsic value at $75.83, implying -38.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does PHM Rank in Operative Builders?
Among 19 Operative Builders stocks, PHM ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places PHM in the top tier.
PulteGroup, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is PHM a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for PHM. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for PulteGroup, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, PulteGroup, Inc. is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every PHM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across PHM's 13 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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