Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Fair Value 2026

CVCO · Residential Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) trades at $570.27, versus a $375.78 median fair value across its 11 active models — 34.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $501.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVCO
Price
$570.27
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +7.0% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $375.78, 34.1% below the current price of $570.27. Estimates range from $188.63 to $915.72. CVCO scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CVCO’s -34.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Residential Construction sector median is -15.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cavco Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVCO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($570.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $501.03 -12.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $239.13 -58.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $372.54 -34.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $610.17 +7.0%
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What Is CVCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $188.63 to $915.72

CirclFi's 11 active models place Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) between $188.63 and $915.72 per share, a spread of 193% of the median. The median of that range — $375.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVCO, against a current price of $570.27.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$188.63median $375.78$915.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$188.63
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$915.72
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cavco Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $375.78, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $570.27. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-34.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $915.72 (+60.6%), versus EROIC at $188.63 (-66.9%). This +127.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVCO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CVCO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVCO is $375.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $501.03 on its own, implying -12.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVCO Rank in Residential Construction?

Among 21 Residential Construction stocks, CVCO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places CVCO in the top tier.

As a industrial enterprise, Cavco Industries, Inc. operates in a sector where working capital efficiency is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CVCO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CVCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVCO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Cavco Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cavco Industries, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVCO's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cavco Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Residential Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Residential Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9NVRNVR, Inc.QOC 8.7SKYChampion Homes, Inc.QOC 9.0PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 9.0DHID.R. Horton, Inc.QOC 8.4MHOM/I Homes, Inc.QOC 8.1DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.QOC 6.9SPHLSpringview Holdings LtdQOC 5.8IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: GRBK · NVR · SKY · PHM · TOL · DHI · MHO · DFH · SPHL · IBP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

TUYATuya Inc.QOC 8.7PBYIPuma Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 8.7NVTnVent Electric plcQOC 8.7SLBKSkyline Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7EROEro Copper Corp.QOC 8.7PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TUYA · PBYI · NVT · SLBK · ERO · PTCT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cavco Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cavco Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO)'s intrinsic value at $375.78 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $188.63 to $915.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $501.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $570.27, 2 of 11 active models suggest CVCO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $375.78, 34.1% below the current price of $570.27 — a consensus view that CVCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cavco Industries, Inc.'s business model in Residential Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for CVCO?

Cavco Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVCO?

CirclFi analyzes CVCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVCO?

Of the 11 models currently active on CVCO, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $915.72 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $188.63. CirclFi's published fair value for CVCO is the median of that range, $375.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 193% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVCO a value trap in 2026?

Cavco Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) has a median fair value of $375.78 — 34.1% below the current price of $570.27 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Cavco Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000278166) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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