Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Fair Value 2026

CVCO · Mobile Homes ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) trades at $555.08, approximately 19% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $465.80. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVCO
Price
$555.08
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +4.1% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($555.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $465.80 -16.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $150.71 -72.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $362.08 -34.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $578.08 +4.1%

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What Is Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cavco Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $419.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $555.08. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-24.5% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $1,065.13 (+91.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $73.58 (-86.7%). This +178.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVCO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CVCO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CVCO's intrinsic value at $465.80, implying -16.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVCO Rank in Mobile Homes?

Among 3 Mobile Homes stocks, CVCO ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places CVCO in the top tier.

Cavco Industries, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CVCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVCO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Cavco Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cavco Industries, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.3/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVCO's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cavco Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Mobile Homes Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Mobile Homes stocks with 13-model coverage

SKYChampion Homes, Inc.QOC 9.2LEGHLegacy Housing CorporationQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: SKY · LEGH

Frequently Asked Questions About Cavco Industries, Inc.

What is Cavco Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $465.80. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $555.08, 3 of 13 active models suggest CVCO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cavco Industries, Inc.'s business model in Mobile Homes.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for CVCO?

Cavco Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVCO?

CirclFi analyzes CVCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CVCO a value trap in 2026?

Cavco Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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