Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) Fair Value 2026

PTRN · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) trades at $21.88, versus a $6.17 median fair value across its 9 active models — 71.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
PTRN
Price
$21.88
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $6.17, 71.8% below the current price of $21.88. Estimates range from $0.37 to $23.53. PTRN scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PTRN’s -71.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pattern Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PTRN?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.30 -57.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.17 -71.8%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $6.80 -68.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.97 -81.8%
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What Is PTRN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.37 to $23.53

CirclFi's 9 active models place Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) between $0.37 and $23.53 per share, a spread of 376% of the median. The median of that range — $6.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PTRN, against a current price of $21.88.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.37median $6.17$23.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$23.53
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PTRN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PTRN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pattern Group Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.17. Trading at its current price of $21.88, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -71.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $23.53 (+7.6%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.37 (-98.3%). This +105.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Pattern Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PTRN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for PTRN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PTRN is $6.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.30 on its own, implying -57.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PTRN Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, PTRN ranks #72 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Pattern Group Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PTRN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PTRN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Pattern Group Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Pattern Group Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +105.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PTRN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PTRN's 9 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pattern Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

EGHT8x8, Inc.QOC 8.0DJCODaily Journal CorporationQOC 7.9MTLSMaterialise NVQOC 8.0CRMZCreditRiskMonitor.com, Inc.QOC 7.9GRNDGrindr Inc.QOC 8.0PLUSePlus inc.QOC 7.9XPERXperi Inc.QOC 6.6GBUXGivBux, Inc.QOC 4.8CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 9.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: EGHT · DJCO · MTLS · CRMZ · GRND · PLUS · XPER · GBUX · CRM · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PTRN?

6 companies across all industries closest to PTRN’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0JFU9F Inc.QOC 8.0ENBPENB Financial CorpQOC 8.0KMBKimberly-Clark CorporationQOC 8.0BUSEFirst Busey CorporationQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UGI · JFU · ENBP · KMB · BUSE · NVDA

Where Does PTRN Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

PTRN is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pattern Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Pattern Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN)'s intrinsic value at $6.17 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.37 to $23.53. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PTRN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.88, 1 of 9 active models suggest PTRN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $6.17, 71.8% below the current price of $21.88 — a consensus view that PTRN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pattern Group Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for PTRN?

Pattern Group Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PTRN?

CirclFi analyzes PTRN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PTRN?

Of the 9 models currently active on PTRN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $23.53 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.37. CirclFi's published fair value for PTRN is the median of that range, $6.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 376% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PTRN a value trap in 2026?

Pattern Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) has a median fair value of $6.17 — 71.8% below the current price of $21.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PTRN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PTRN valuation
  • Financial statements: Pattern Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001811935) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PTRN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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