Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Fair Value 2026

TOL · Residential Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) trades at $145.13, versus a $140.98 median fair value across its 13 active models — 2.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $173.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
TOL
Price
$145.13
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +168.8% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $140.98, within 2.9% of the current price of $145.13. Estimates range from $19.48 to $390.07. TOL scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TOL’s -2.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Residential Construction sector median is -15.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Toll Brothers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TOL?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($145.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $173.06 +19.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $102.40 -29.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $140.98 -2.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $390.07 +168.8%
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What Is TOL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $19.48 to $390.07

CirclFi's 13 active models place Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) between $19.48 and $390.07 per share, a spread of 263% of the median. The median of that range — $140.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TOL, against a current price of $145.13.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$19.48median $140.98$390.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$19.48
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$390.07
Model agreement6 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TOL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TOL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Toll Brothers, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $145.13. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $140.98 (-2.9% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $390.07 (+168.8%), versus Dynamic NAV at $19.48 (-86.6%). This +255.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TOL?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TOL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TOL is $140.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $173.06 on its own, implying +19.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TOL Rank in Residential Construction?

Among 21 Residential Construction stocks, TOL ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places TOL in the top tier.

As a industrial enterprise, Toll Brothers, Inc. operates in a sector where capacity utilization rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TOL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TOL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TOL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Toll Brothers, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Toll Brothers, Inc. is rated at 9.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +255.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TOL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TOL's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Toll Brothers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Residential Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Residential Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2SKYChampion Homes, Inc.QOC 9.0VNJAVanjia CorporationQOC 5.6GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9SPHLSpringview Holdings LtdQOC 5.8CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5LEGHLegacy Housing CorporationQOC 7.8BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc.QOC 6.7

Read investment analysis: IBP · SKY · VNJA · GRBK · SPHL · CVCO · PHM · LEGH · BZH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TOL?

6 companies across all industries closest to TOL’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

CVLTCommvault Systems, Inc.QOC 9.0EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.QOC 9.0HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0LOGILogitech International S.A.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CVLT · EG · KTB · HGTY · LOGI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Toll Brothers, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)'s intrinsic value at $140.98 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $19.48 to $390.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $173.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TOL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $145.13, 6 of 13 active models suggest TOL may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $140.98, within 2.9% of the current price of $145.13 — a consensus view that TOL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Toll Brothers, Inc.'s business model in Residential Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for TOL?

Toll Brothers, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TOL?

CirclFi analyzes TOL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TOL?

Of the 13 models currently active on TOL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $390.07 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $19.48. CirclFi's published fair value for TOL is the median of that range, $140.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 263% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TOL a value trap in 2026?

Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) has a median fair value of $140.98 — within 2.9% of the current price of $145.13 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TOL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TOL valuation
  • Financial statements: Toll Brothers, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000794170) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TOL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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