SM Energy Company (SM) Fair Value 2026

SM · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, SM Energy Company (SM) trades at $29.90. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SM
Price
$29.90
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +325.3% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
 $0.45 -98.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $80.42 +169.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $36.12 +20.8%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $127.16 +325.3%

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What Is SM Energy Company (SM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SM Energy Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $53.21. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $29.90 (implied upside of +78.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +325.3% (fair value: $127.16), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -98.8% ($0.37). The spread between these extremes — +424.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SM Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, SM ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places SM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

The Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For SM Energy Company, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for SM Energy Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SM Energy Company scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +424.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SM's 12 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SM Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4WDSWoodside Energy Group LimitedQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About SM Energy Company

What is SM Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, SM Energy Company (SM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.90, 8 of 12 active models suggest SM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SM Energy Company's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for SM?

SM Energy Company's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SM?

CirclFi analyzes SM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SM a value trap in 2026?

SM Energy Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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