SM Energy Company (SM) Fair Value 2026

SM · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, SM Energy Company (SM) trades at $36.81, versus a $56.78 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $140.26.

Key Facts

Ticker
SM
Price
$36.81
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +281.0% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is SM Energy Company (SM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, SM Energy Company (SM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $56.78, 54.3% above the current price of $36.81. Estimates range from $15.77 to $140.26. SM scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SM’s +54.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SM Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $140.26 +281.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $57.29 +55.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $39.22 +6.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.08 -34.6%
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What Is SM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.77 to $140.26

CirclFi's 11 active models place SM Energy Company (SM) between $15.77 and $140.26 per share, a spread of 219% of the median. The median of that range — $56.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SM, against a current price of $36.81.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$15.77median $56.78$140.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$15.77
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$140.26
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SM Energy Company (SM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SM Energy Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $56.78. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $36.81 (implied upside of +54.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +281.0% (fair value: $140.26), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -57.2% ($15.77). The spread between these extremes — +338.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SM is $56.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $140.26 on its own, implying +281.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SM Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, SM ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places SM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

The Oil & Gas E&P sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For SM Energy Company, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for SM Energy Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SM Energy Company scores 8.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +338.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SM's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SM Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 8.8COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 8.9GPORGulfport Energy CorporationQOC 8.8KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LPQOC 8.1BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7TBNTamboran Resources CorporationQOC 5.2TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PR · DVN · COP · EOG · MGY · GPOR · KRP · BTE · TBN · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SM?

7 companies across all industries closest to SM’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

BCPCBalchem CorporationQOC 8.9URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9HEIHEICO CorporationQOC 8.9LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9ROLRollins, Inc.QOC 8.9GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BCPC · URBN · HEI · LDOS · ROL · GRBK · NVDA

Where Does SM Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

SM is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SM Energy Company’s Valuation?

What is SM Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SM Energy Company (SM)'s intrinsic value at $56.78 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.77 to $140.26. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $140.26 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.81, 8 of 11 active models suggest SM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $56.78, 54.3% above the current price of $36.81 — a consensus view that SM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SM Energy Company's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for SM?

SM Energy Company's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SM?

CirclFi analyzes SM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SM?

Of the 11 models currently active on SM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $140.26 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $15.77. CirclFi's published fair value for SM is the median of that range, $56.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 219% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SM a value trap in 2026?

SM Energy Company's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, SM Energy Company (SM) has a median fair value of $56.78 — 54.3% above the current price of $36.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SM valuation
  • Financial statements: SM Energy Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000893538) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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