Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) Fair Value 2026

BTE · Drilling Oil & Gas Wells ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) trades at $4.24. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTE
Price
$4.24
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +142.5% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$5.69 +34.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$10.04 +136.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$10.28 +142.5%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$6.76 +59.4%

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What Is Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Baytex Energy Corp at $4.24. With an estimated intrinsic value of $5.60 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +32.2%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $10.28 (+142.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.45 (-89.4%). This +231.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Baytex Energy Corp's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BTE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BTE. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTE Rank in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells?

Among 12 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks, BTE ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Drilling Oil & Gas Wells space, Baytex Energy Corp competes in an environment where production decline rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BTE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTE a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Baytex Energy Corp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Baytex Energy Corp's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +231.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTE's 11 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Baytex Energy Corp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drilling Oil & Gas Wells Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Baytex Energy Corp

What is Baytex Energy Corp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.24, 7 of 11 active models suggest BTE may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Baytex Energy Corp's business model in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for BTE?

Baytex Energy Corp's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTE?

CirclFi analyzes BTE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTE a value trap in 2026?

Baytex Energy Corp's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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