Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Fair Value 2026

BTE · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) trades at $4.74, versus a $4.80 median fair value across its 6 active models — 1.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTE
Price
$4.74
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +223.5% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $4.80, within 1.2% of the current price of $4.74. Estimates range from $1.29 to $15.33. BTE scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BTE’s +1.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Baytex Energy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BTE?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.98 +131.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $15.33 +223.5%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.29 -72.8%
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What Is BTE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.29 to $15.33

CirclFi's 6 active models place Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) between $1.29 and $15.33 per share, a spread of 293% of the median. The median of that range — $4.80 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BTE, against a current price of $4.74.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$1.29median $4.80$15.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$1.29
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$15.33
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BTE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BTE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Baytex Energy Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $4.80, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $4.74. While the median implied return is +1.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +296.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $15.33 (+223.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.29 (-72.8%). This +296.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Baytex Energy Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BTE?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BTE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BTE is $4.80 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTE Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, BTE ranks #52 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Baytex Energy Corp. competes in an environment where production decline rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BTE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTE a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Baytex Energy Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Baytex Energy Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +296.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTE's 6 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Baytex Energy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.QOC 6.7KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.QOC 6.6OBEObsidian Energy Ltd.QOC 6.8KGEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.QOC 6.6REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8BKVBKV CorporationQOC 6.6TBNTamboran Resources CorporationQOC 5.2SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LPQOC 8.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GTE · KOS · OBE · KGEI · REI · BKV · TBN · SM · KRP · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BTE?

7 companies across all industries closest to BTE’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 6.7FENCFennec Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.7RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7BODIThe Beachbody Company, Inc.QOC 6.7XGNExagen Inc.QOC 6.7SOHUSohu.com LimitedQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DSGR · FENC · RCUS · BODI · XGN · SOHU · NVDA

Where Does BTE Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

BTE is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Baytex Energy Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Baytex Energy Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)'s intrinsic value at $4.80 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.29 to $15.33. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.74, 3 of 6 active models suggest BTE may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $4.80, within 1.2% of the current price of $4.74 — a consensus view that BTE is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Baytex Energy Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for BTE?

Baytex Energy Corp.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTE?

CirclFi analyzes BTE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BTE?

Of the 6 models currently active on BTE, First Chicago is the most bullish at $15.33 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $1.29. CirclFi's published fair value for BTE is the median of that range, $4.80, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 293% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BTE a value trap in 2026?

Baytex Energy Corp.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) has a median fair value of $4.80 — within 1.2% of the current price of $4.74 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BTE valuation
  • Financial statements: Baytex Energy Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001279495) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BTE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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