Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) Fair Value 2026

GTE · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) trades at $10.11, versus a $13.99 median fair value across its 8 active models — 38.4% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
GTE
Price
$10.11
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +127.7% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $13.99, 38.4% above the current price of $10.11. Estimates range from $7.20 to $33.15. GTE scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GTE’s +38.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GTE?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.52 +33.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.45 +43.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $23.02 +127.7%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $12.57 +24.3%
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What Is GTE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $7.20 to $33.15

CirclFi's 8 active models place Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) between $7.20 and $33.15 per share, a spread of 185% of the median. The median of that range — $13.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GTE, against a current price of $10.11.

Low · FTNNHigh · PWERM
$7.20median $13.99$33.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$7.20
Most bullish modelPWERM$33.15
Model agreement7 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GTE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GTE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $10.11. Based on our 13-model framework, Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.99 — representing +38.4% implied upside — with 7 out of 8 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $33.15 (+227.9%), versus FTNN at $7.20 (-28.7%). This +256.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GTE?

8 of 13 models are currently active for GTE. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GTE is $13.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.52 on its own, implying +33.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GTE Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, GTE ranks #51 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

The Oil & Gas E&P sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For Gran Tierra Energy Inc., metrics like capital efficiency ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is GTE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GTE a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Gran Tierra Energy Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +256.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GTE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GTE's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

OBEObsidian Energy Ltd.QOC 6.8BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8KGEIKolibri Global Energy Inc.QOC 6.6EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.QOC 6.6CHKRChesapeake Granite Wash TrustQOC 5.3PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9ARAntero Resources CorporationQOC 8.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: OBE · BTE · REI · KGEI · EGY · KOS · CHKR · PR · AR · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GTE?

7 companies across all industries closest to GTE’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

XBIOXenetic Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7MMIMarcus & Millichap, Inc.QOC 6.7FGBIFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.QOC 6.7NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.QOC 6.7TAITTaitron Components IncorporatedQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: XBIO · MMI · FGBI · NXDR · QBTS · TAIT · NVDA

Where Does GTE Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

GTE is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gran Tierra Energy Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)'s intrinsic value at $13.99 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.20 to $33.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GTE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.11, 7 of 8 active models suggest GTE may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $13.99, 38.4% above the current price of $10.11 — a consensus view that GTE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for GTE?

Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GTE?

CirclFi analyzes GTE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GTE?

Of the 8 models currently active on GTE, PWERM is the most bullish at $33.15 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $7.20. CirclFi's published fair value for GTE is the median of that range, $13.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 185% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GTE a value trap in 2026?

Gran Tierra Energy Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE) has a median fair value of $13.99 — 38.4% above the current price of $10.11 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GTE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GTE valuation
  • Financial statements: Gran Tierra Energy Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001273441) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GTE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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