Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) Fair Value 2026

KGEI · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (53/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) trades at $5.85, versus a $3.86 median fair value across its 10 active models — 34.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 53/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
KGEI
Price
$5.85
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
53/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 53 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $3.86, 34.0% below the current price of $5.85. Estimates range from $2.74 to $11.13. KGEI scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 53/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KGEI’s -34.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kolibri Global Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KGEI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.29 -26.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.81 -52.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.88 -33.6%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $3.05 -47.9%
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What Is KGEI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.74 to $11.13

CirclFi's 10 active models place Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) between $2.74 and $11.13 per share, a spread of 217% of the median. The median of that range — $3.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KGEI, against a current price of $5.85.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.74median $3.86$11.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.74
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$11.13
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KGEI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KGEI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.86. Trading at its current price of $5.85, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -34.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $11.13 (+90.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.74 (-53.2%). This +143.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KGEI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for KGEI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KGEI is $3.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.29 on its own, implying -26.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KGEI Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, KGEI ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that production decline rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commodity price environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KGEI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KGEI a score of 53/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Kolibri Global Energy Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KGEI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KGEI's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kolibri Global Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7KOSKosmos Energy Ltd.QOC 6.6GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.QOC 6.7BKVBKV CorporationQOC 6.6OBEObsidian Energy Ltd.QOC 6.8EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 6.5ROYLRoyale Energy, Inc.QOC 5.1DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 8.8APAAPA CorporationQOC 8.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BTE · KOS · GTE · BKV · OBE · EPSN · ROYL · DVN · APA · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KGEI?

7 companies across all industries closest to KGEI’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

INSEInspired Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.6KFFBKentucky First Federal BancorpQOC 6.6PAGSPagSeguro Digital Ltd.QOC 6.6ZYMEZymeworks Inc.QOC 6.6LNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades AgrícolasQOC 6.6UNITUniti Group Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INSE · KFFB · PAGS · ZYME · LND · UNIT · NVDA

Where Does KGEI Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

KGEI is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kolibri Global Energy Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI)'s intrinsic value at $3.86 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.74 to $11.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KGEI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.85, 2 of 10 active models suggest KGEI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $3.86, 34.0% below the current price of $5.85 — a consensus view that KGEI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for KGEI?

Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KGEI?

CirclFi analyzes KGEI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KGEI?

Of the 10 models currently active on KGEI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $11.13 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.74. CirclFi's published fair value for KGEI is the median of that range, $3.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 217% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KGEI a value trap in 2026?

Kolibri Global Energy Inc.'s Value Trap score is 53/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI) has a median fair value of $3.86 — 34.0% below the current price of $5.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KGEI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KGEI valuation
  • Financial statements: Kolibri Global Energy Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001477081) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KGEI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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