Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) Fair Value 2026

EPM · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (46/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) trades at $3.64, versus a $3.06 median fair value across its 11 active models — 15.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 46/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
EPM
Price
$3.64
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
46/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +90.3% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 46 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $3.06, 15.9% below the current price of $3.64. Estimates range from $0.50 to $9.03. EPM scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 46/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EPM’s -15.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Evolution Petroleum Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EPM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.24 +44.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.94 +8.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $6.93 +90.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.56 -84.6%
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What Is EPM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.50 to $9.03

CirclFi's 11 active models place Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) between $0.50 and $9.03 per share, a spread of 279% of the median. The median of that range — $3.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EPM, against a current price of $3.64.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Markov DDM
$0.50median $3.06$9.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.50
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$9.03
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EPM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EPM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Evolution Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.06, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $3.64. With a median implied return of -15.9% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +234.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +148.2% (fair value: $9.03), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -86.2% ($0.50). The spread between these extremes — +234.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About EPM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for EPM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EPM is $3.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.24 on its own, implying +44.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EPM Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, EPM ranks #44 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Evolution Petroleum Corporation's positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that reserve life index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is EPM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EPM a score of 46/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Evolution Petroleum Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Evolution Petroleum Corporation scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +234.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EPM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EPM's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Evolution Petroleum Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4INRInfinity Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1CRKComstock Resources, Inc.QOC 7.4TALOTalos Energy Inc.QOC 6.9ANNAAleAnna, Inc.QOC 7.5GFRGreenfire Resources Ltd.QOC 6.8ZNOGZion Oil & Gas, Inc.QOC 5.5VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 2.8CHRDChord Energy CorporationQOC 8.3TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BATL · INR · CRK · TALO · ANNA · GFR · ZNOG · VIST · CHRD · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EPM?

7 companies across all industries closest to EPM’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.QOC 7.1SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1RSKDRiskified Ltd.QOC 7.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1SEDGSolarEdge Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.1ALLYAlly Financial Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EBS · SWX · RSKD · MCS · SEDG · ALLY · NVDA

Where Does EPM Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

EPM is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Evolution Petroleum Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Evolution Petroleum Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM)'s intrinsic value at $3.06 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.50 to $9.03. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EPM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.64, 5 of 11 active models suggest EPM may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $3.06, 15.9% below the current price of $3.64 — a consensus view that EPM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Evolution Petroleum Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for EPM?

Evolution Petroleum Corporation's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EPM?

CirclFi analyzes EPM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EPM?

Of the 11 models currently active on EPM, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $9.03 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.50. CirclFi's published fair value for EPM is the median of that range, $3.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 279% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EPM a value trap in 2026?

Evolution Petroleum Corporation's Value Trap score is 46/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) has a median fair value of $3.06 — 15.9% below the current price of $3.64 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EPM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EPM valuation
  • Financial statements: Evolution Petroleum Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001006655) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EPM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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