Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Fair Value 2026

SWX · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) trades at $89.10, versus a $53.72 median fair value across its 9 active models — 39.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SWX
Price
$89.10
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $53.72, 39.7% below the current price of $89.10. Estimates range from $22.68 to $112.00. SWX scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SWX’s -39.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SWX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($89.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $53.72 -39.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.78 -57.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.68 -74.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.48 -49.0%
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What Is SWX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $22.68 to $112.00

CirclFi's 9 active models place Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) between $22.68 and $112.00 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $53.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SWX, against a current price of $89.10.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$22.68median $53.72$112.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$22.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$112.00
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SWX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SWX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $53.72. Trading at $89.10, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -39.7%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $112.00 (+25.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $22.68 (-74.5%). This +100.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SWX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SWX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SWX is $53.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SWX Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, SWX ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., metrics like finding and development costs (F&D) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SWX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SWX a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SWX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SWX's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

CPKChesapeake Utilities CorporationQOC 7.3OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.QOC 6.3UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: CPK · OGS · RGCO · NWN · BIPC · BKH · MDU · UGI · SR · NJR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SWX?

7 companies across all industries closest to SWX’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.QOC 7.1ALLYAlly Financial Inc.QOC 7.1RSKDRiskified Ltd.QOC 7.1DHXDHI Group, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EPM · MCS · EBS · ALLY · RSKD · DHX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX)'s intrinsic value at $53.72 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $22.68 to $112.00. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SWX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $89.10, 3 of 9 active models suggest SWX may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $53.72, 39.7% below the current price of $89.10 — a consensus view that SWX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for SWX?

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SWX?

CirclFi analyzes SWX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SWX?

Of the 9 models currently active on SWX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $112.00 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $22.68. CirclFi's published fair value for SWX is the median of that range, $53.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SWX a value trap in 2026?

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) has a median fair value of $53.72 — 39.7% below the current price of $89.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SWX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SWX valuation
  • Financial statements: Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001692115) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SWX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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