Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) Fair Value 2026

CPK · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) trades at $132.71, versus a $85.72 median fair value across its 11 active models — 35.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $469.26.

Key Facts

Ticker
CPK
Price
$132.71
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +253.6% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $85.72, 35.4% below the current price of $132.71. Estimates range from $18.61 to $469.26. CPK scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CPK’s -35.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CPK?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($132.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $469.26 +253.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.61 -86.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $80.85 -39.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.31 -62.1%
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What Is CPK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $18.61 to $469.26

CirclFi's 11 active models place Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) between $18.61 and $469.26 per share, a spread of 526% of the median. The median of that range — $85.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CPK, against a current price of $132.71.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$18.61median $85.72$469.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$18.61
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$469.26
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CPK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CPK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $85.72. Trading at its current price of $132.71, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -35.4%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $469.26 (+253.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $18.61 (-86.0%). This +339.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CPK?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CPK. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CPK is $85.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $469.26 on its own, implying +253.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CPK Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, CPK ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Gas segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including energy transition positioning — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CPK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CPK a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Chesapeake Utilities Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation scores 7.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +339.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CPK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CPK's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4NINiSource Inc.QOC 7.8UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0

Read investment analysis: RGCO · SWX · BIPC · OGS · SR · NWN · BKH · NJR · NI · UGI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CPK?

7 companies across all industries closest to CPK’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.3RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3VSECVSE CorporationQOC 7.3GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3BMNMBimini Capital Management, Inc.QOC 7.3CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGHT · RYZ · VSEC · GDOT · BMNM · CWGL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chesapeake Utilities Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK)'s intrinsic value at $85.72 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $18.61 to $469.26. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $469.26 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CPK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $132.71, 2 of 11 active models suggest CPK may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $85.72, 35.4% below the current price of $132.71 — a consensus view that CPK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for CPK?

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CPK?

CirclFi analyzes CPK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CPK?

Of the 11 models currently active on CPK, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $469.26 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $18.61. CirclFi's published fair value for CPK is the median of that range, $85.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 526% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CPK a value trap in 2026?

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation's Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) has a median fair value of $85.72 — 35.4% below the current price of $132.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CPK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CPK valuation
  • Financial statements: Chesapeake Utilities Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000019745) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CPK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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